Simplified Useful Respiratory Failure Evaluation System

[Object] To design a prognostic system for respiratory failure patients admitted to RICU.[Methods] 102 respiratory failure patient' s data from RICU (estimation group) were prospectively collected to screen prognostic factors which effect the outcomes of respiratory failure patients by factor analysis, a new scoring system named SURFES were made by giving screened prognostic factors a definit weight combining death risk estimates of each variables with pulmonary expert evaluations. The data of 101 cases (validation group) were collected to evaluate SURFES reliability and validity and compared it with APACHE II.[Results](1)Systolic blood pressure,Pulse,Respiratory rate, pH,PaCO2, Conscious state were associated with prognosis of respiratory failure,the highest score of each factors were 4.Death riskermation: (2)The accuracy ,sensitivity, specificity,ROCAUC,p of Lemeshow-Hosmer c-stastics of SURFES/APACHE II for the validation group were 86.1% / 84.16%, 83.33% / 81.25%, 88.68% / 86.79%, 0.910 / 0.915, 0.514 / 0.175 respectively. kappa=0.681. (3)Classifying the validation group into retrospective and prospective group, the accuracy of SURFES were 85.0% and 88.0% respectively.[Conclusion](1)SURFES has higher accuracy,less variables, It is easy to use for evaluating the patient's prognosis of respiratory failure.(2)APACHE II has also higher accuracy,but it is unpractical to evaluate the prognosis of RICU patients for too many variables.