Research On Predict Model And Method Of Acute Mountain Sickness Susceptible Herd

Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS) is a great threat for people moving from plain area to plateau or from low altitude to high altitude in high speed. Related report indicates that AMS incidence rate is significantly high in plateau high-speed moving troops and much nonbattle loss in manpower was caused. Study shows Acute Mountain Sickness susceptible herd exists. Research on the predicting and screening of Susceptible Herd is a helpful efficient and economic method in avoiding the Susceptible Herd onto plateau and controlling the happening of AMS.In this research, based on research achievements of high-altitude medicine, "soft science" method was used to analyze, evaluate and systematic colligate the present research achievements so as to establish a simple, high-efficient and accurate predict index system and predict model of AMS susceptible herd, build practical measures to change basic high altitude medicine research into high altitude health service capability.In this paper, "acute mountain sickness susceptible herd" was scientifically defined, predict index system was put forward through literature survey and plateau spot investigation. The indexes were selected by using System Analysis, Specialist Consultation and AHP methods. According to doctrines of object concordance, objective reliability, direct measurability, easy operation and dynamic development, AMS susceptible herd predict index system was established, index weight and weight collection were scientificallybuilt. On the basis of the basic theory of comprehensive predict mathematical model and the fact of AMS susceptible herd predict, predict model of AMS susceptible herd was established by using Line weight-adding linearity synthetic method. In the evidence-proving research, the predict result in a group of 60 young soldiers was verified comparing with the true episode condition by Kappa Tite Method, the concordance was quite satisfying(Kappa Tite≈0.86＞0.75).In conclusion, the tentative Predict Project of AMS Susceptible Herd in Plateau High-speed Moving Troops was formed. In the Predict Project, compute technology was applied to realize the automatization of data collection, calculation and evaluation.