Survival Analysis In Sclerotherapy For Esophageal Variceal Hemorrhage Of Hepatic Cirrhosis

Objective To study the relationship of all kinds of factors in sclerotherapy for esophageal variceal hemorrhage of hepatic cirrhosis and quantitively analyse the effects on survival,to establish survival model and calculate survival rates and prognostic index. Methods From 1987 to 2000,the twenty-nine prognostic factors and survival data of 670 patients with esophageal variceal hemorrhage of hepatic cirrhosis were analysed by relationship analysis and Cox model. Results Esophageal varices were eradicated and almost eradicated in 84.03% of patients. Among 7 factors of sclerotherapy,only the time of first period of sclerotherapy(X23) and the injection doses of (X26) first times of sclerotherapy were main factors which affect the treating results of varices,while type of sclerosants had nothing to do with the treating results of varices. The times of first period of sclerotherapy was 2.89 ?1.18, the injection doses of first times of sclerotherapy was 25.48 ?7.90m1 ,and the mean doses of per selerotherapy was 19.13?.01 ml. Among 29 prognostic factors,only liver function Child grade(X15) and treating results of varices (X28) showed a high significance with survival. Survival model is h (t, x) =h0 ( t ) exp ( 0.933X15+0.607X28 ) . prognostic index is P10.933X15+0.607X28. The survival rates in 1, 3 and 5 year were 93.29%, 85.24% and 74.27%, respectively. Conclusion The sclerotherapy for esophageal variceal hemorrhage is an effecLve method which control acute bleeding and prevent re-bleeding, and should be taken actively for patients in Child grade C and be taken again in 3-5 years. The sclerotherapy can improve survival rates greatly. The prognostic index can quantitively predict prognosis.