The Evaluation And Analysis On Agro-ecosystem Productivity Stability

The security and guarantee of the global commissariat in the 21st century will becomeone of the most difficult problems for human survival and development. It is not only apolitical problem for the stabilization of the country and the society and the developmentof the economy, but also a basic problem for people survival and development. Along withthe improvement of people's life, the demand of agricultural products is getting more andmore, the conflict among population, soil and commissariat is popping out day by day, itgives commissariat product and security huge pressure. For commissariat product,productivity is the core and key of the stability of the Agro-ecosystem; it is also the basiccut in point for of Agro-ecosystem optimize mode. The productivity of the whole society isfinally decided by the productivity of the Agro-ecosystem. Therefore, researching of thestability of territorial Agro-ecosystem, analyzing the space time changing character of theproductivity has the significance of exploring the continuable mode of Agro-ecosystem,solving population-plow land-commissariat acuity conflict and the commissariatsecurity and zoology security problem. Meanwhile the analysis and evaluation of thestability of productivity of the territorial Agro-ecosystem is helpful to make a series ofagricultural policy measure, optimize the territorial Agro-ecosystem, make the agriculturedevelops with the economic benefit, zoology benefit and society benefit three as one, and itwill provide scientific evidence and powerful guarantee for the actualize the stabilizationof Agro-ecosystem and the continuable mode of Agro-ecosystem.This thesis is guided by the theory of continuable development and undulation theory,base on a lot of data, discuss for the stability of territorial Agro-ecosystem, use XiongCounty Hebei Province as the researching sample, starting with analyzing the change ofthe output of Xiong County in the past years, review on the spot at the researching area,with the practical situation, make the best of the data in existence, construct the stability ofterritorial Agro-ecosystem system with full-scale, arrangement in focus from XiongCounty Hebei province. The Evaluation System was set at 4 layers(goals layer, integratedlayer, item layer, factors layer) and 17 factors.Use the evaluation method of general indexand undulation index; analyze the stability of territorial Agro-ecosystem from time andspace two aspects, the main researching conclusion as follows: (1) This thesis combines with statistic data in the past years and fieldwork data,analyzing from the natural and social economics of Xiong County, looking for therestrictive factors for the stability of territorial Agro-ecosystem in Xiong County from thechanges in the past several years, meanwhile for the establishment of the stability ofterritorial Agro-ecosystem of Xiong County it also provides perfect scientific evidence.(2) Via the general analysis of the change of commissariat's output at the researchingarea, concludes that the average of productivity per person at Xiong county is on the top ofHebei province and the whole country, but the change of the output fluctuate in the pastyears, and it is raising calmly during the development.(3)Researched and built the index system in order to evaluate the stability of territorialAgro-ecosystem, Applied the Delphi approach and AHP to resolve the weight problem thatthe stability index of territorial Agro-ecosystem, effective and practical, it is much betterthan analyzing by personal experience and knowledge, concludes that the power of socialeconomics is greater than the natural economics.(4)Evaluate the stability of territorial Agro-ecosystem by using time order as the unit;in general the current is developing from instability to the stabilization, there are 3moments, the first moment, 1974-1986, the stability of territorial Agro-ecosystem at Xiongcounty was bad, the second moment, 1987-1998, the current of stability of territorialAgro-ecosystem was going to be stable, the third moment, 1999-2005, the stability ofterritorial Agro-ecosystem was good. The current from the first to the second moment isabating, and the current from the second to the third moment is obviously from the generalstability to the stability.(5)Evaluate the stability of territorial Agro-ecosystem by using the space of eachcounty as the unit, in all saying it is decreasing from the direction southwest to thenortheast. Viewing the stability of each township, it can be divided into three ranks: TheAPI fluctuation amplitude in ten years in Xiongzhou,ZhugeZhuang and LongWan is little,basically being in stable state, so these three townships can be divided for the first rank;The API fluctuation amplitude in JiuGang,ZhangGang and DaGang is not very big, butbasically being in stable state in general, so these three townships can be divided for thesecond rank; The API fluctuation amplitude in ShuangTang,Mibei and BeiSha is very big,but basically being in inferior stable state, so these three townships can be divided for thethird rank.