Climate Zoing And Drought Risk For Tea In Hubei Province

China is the origin of tea and known as the tea country all over the world. Hubei Province is the zone of humid subtropical monsoon climate that is suitable for the cultivation of tea. It's one of the six major tea producing provinces in China. In recent years with extreme weather frequently happening, tea planting saw a number of agrometeorological hazards in Hubei, among which drought is the most serious that constrain the yield and the quality of tea. The emergence of drought, the drought continued and the risk level affected by climate, soil, agriculture and natural resource limitations and adaptability of crops, by the local regulation of the available water resources capabilities change, and by the level of socio-economic development constraints. Changes in these factors directly affect the crop suitability, risk of drought and drought in the material, financial, scientific and technological input level.Based on the climate data from 74 meteorological stations in Hubei province during 1971 and 2005, ecologically suitable tea planting zoning was retrieved through fuzzy comprehensive assessment method using lkmxlkm grid. Four zones, the optimum, suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable, were mapped and analyzed with the support of geographic information system (GIS). Results show that the southwest, southeast areas and part of northeast area in Hubei province are optimum for tea planting, accounting for 27.1% of the total area of the province. The northwest area and part of central area which account for 19.8% of the total are not suitable for tea planting due to less annual precipitation and lower annual extreme minimum temperature, while the rest areas are considered as suitable or sub-suitable for tea planting. According to the statistic and ancillary data, the results are well consistent with actual cultivation situation in the province, which can be used in the sustainable development of tea and is superior to delicately guiding tea planting from the point of climate.Considering both natural and social attributes of the natural disaster risk, four indices are selected for the risk assessment in this research. They include the intensity of drought, the frequency of drought occurrences based on the risk index of water deficiency rate, the risk index of yield reduction rate, the agriculture level, and the index of disaster resistance. It is well known that in multivariate analysis, ordination is a complementary method in data clustering and is used mainly in exploratory data analysis. By using the most common Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) ordination method, it is found that there are relationships between different risk assessment indices and they are correlated with the relative meteorological yields. Then on the base of the relation, the comprehensive risk index model of losses caused by drought was established. Finally, according to the drought comprehensive risk index of tea and using Acrgis Natural Breaks(Jenks), the Hubei area is divided into:the highest, higher, moderate, low and slight risk areas. The highest value area are part of northwest area in Hubei province, the risk index is more than 0.28; The moderate value area are part of northwest and the low-lying region of north area in Hubei province, the risk index is between 0.09 to 0.17; The slight value area are southwest, south of Jianghan plain, northeast and southeast area in Hubei province, the risk index is less than 0.04; while the rest areas are considered as higher or low area.