The Study And Development Of Forecast And Early-Warning Software System For Potato' Late Blight In MaLong

In Malong of Yunnan province, The Late Blight is a disaster to grow of potato. The goal of this thesis is to develop a suit of Forecasting and Early-Warning software system that base on short-term prediction for potato's Late Blight that can forecast the occurrence time and the trend of potato's Late Blight so that it can predict the right time to spray the pesticide and reduce the loss caused by Late Blight to a maximal extent.The author established the short-term prediction with the result of analyzing many overseas short-term prediction model and combination the agriculture expert's experience. A trend of potato's Late Blight of BP neural network long-term prediction model are constructed with the result of short-term prediction-Risk value , blight units and the add rain and the type of potato. Gray-Disaster prediction are constructed with the result of BP neural network long-term prediction model. The three main modules: short-term prediction, BP neural network long-term prediction and Gray-Disaster prediction constitute the Forecasting and Early-Warning Software System for Potato's Late Blight. And along with the weather data of continuously increase, whole the accuracy for early-warning system would be precision.The thesis' frame as follows:â—† The obtainment of short-term prediction model , BP NN long-term prediction modek and Grey-Disaster model of potato's Late BlightFirstly, the software system construct a history database related to potato' Late Blight; secondly, the short-term prediction model is constructed with the help of the experts' experience and the result of analyzing overseas short-term prediction model ; thirdly, a trend of potato's Late Blight of BP neural network long-term prediction model is constructed with the result of short-term prediction and the type of potato that is very helpful for the prediction of late Blight; fourthly, Grey-Disaster Model is constructed with the result of long-term prediction that makes that we can predict the time of the disaster of late Blight, which has deepsense for our prediction work.â—† The Forecasting and Early-Warning software system of potato's Late Blight is developedThe system makes use of the Numerical-Computering of Matlab ToolBox function by Matlab Engine technology, whose user end is developed by Visual C++, and then exchanges data with Visual C++ to achieve the goal of predict. Meanwhile, the system build up the history database on the base of the DBMS:SQL Server 2000, which can be accessed by the MFC ODBC technology. Just as the above are mentioned, Forecasting and Early-Warning software system is developed. In fact , it has been proved that the system is feasible. And the prediction method that combines the short-term prediction , long-term prediction of NN with Grey-Disaster prediction also may be applied for other domains to a certain extent, such as mechanic fault diagnosis, flood disaster prediction ,etc.