Technical Research In Forecasting The Chilling Damage For Maize Of Ji-Lin Provinces

With the improvement of the scientific and technological content of agricultural production, various kinds of Agro meteorological Disaster restrict agricultural production development, jobs of defending of Agro meteorological Disaster demanded to strengthen urgently. The chilling damage as one of the Agro meteorological Disaster, its the deep development of defending work depend on advancement of predicting technical research of the chilling damage, on improving the accuracy of predicting further.The comprehensive index of maize for the chilling damage can reflect the high-temperature compensation effect and the accumulation effect of the low temperature etc. To a certain extent, it is key point whether low temperature could cause maize suffer from damage as it appears, it is not sure as long as low temperature appears to happen chilling damage to crop. Characteristic of Agro meteorological Disaster is a time-accumulating damage. During crop growing, any high temperature period appears may accelerate the development of crops. Similarly, any low temperature of period may make the development delay, but if the low temperature causes disaster finally, it depends on low-temperature duration size, also on severity of low temperature etc. The comprehensive index of maize for the chilling damage can reflect that the low-temperature impact on crop is a characteristic of accumulating the course to a certain extent, low temperature only reach certain degree can cause to crop damage.Compared with the several past indexes of maize for the chilling damage, the comprehensive index of maize for the chilling damage has mainly discussed and analyzed the hurts possibility when the low temperature takes place at distributed the budding stage. The number of delaying-days as an auxiliary index makes agriculture and biological meaning clear. Consulting the final crop yield to increase and decrease, combine with real producers' close attention to the thing close, so it is benefit to guide the activity in production. The comprehensive index of maize for the chilling damage candifferentiate the degree of low temperature with rate of accuracy relatively high actually, and give the better explain also, then offer one comparatively steady reliable index to predict and defense low temperature work.The chilling damage forecast model of Maize consider many kinds of influence of factor, such as atmospheric circulation factor, high field factor, sea warm factor and mean value cycle factor. Adopt the prediction model which predict factor integration more. While predicting the degree of low temperature of next year, input the live materials in previous year the model of predicting, roll and predict, overcome the statistic model of the shortcoming with short forecast time availability. Used for trying the accuracy of the newspaper high, has not misrepresented deliberately.Based on intelligence system technology of the computer set up Conceptual model of decision support system for chilling damage prevention in the Northeast, it severs mainly decision-makers and the masses of producer, to improve policy-making level. It offers a kind of feasible train of thought intelligently against calamity of agricultural weather. Gather research results of defending low temperature in recent years in an all-round way, at certain competence of Agro meteorological Disaster predicts, offer the exhaustive measure of resisting the calamity of defense to policymaker. It is to try one's best on design of system, operation without difficult specially, succinct and lucid and lively, as well as very clear in frame structure, the convenient software offers decision help to user.