| As the important part of the environment and the nature resources, water is the prerequisite condition for human surviving and developing. With the population expanding and the economic development, in the drought area that would be a desert without water but would be an oasis with water, the water resources take more and more vital role increasingly for the economic society development and the ecosystem improvement.Zhangye oasis, as the core part of Black River Oasis, has 92% population, 83% national economy water utilization volume and 76% water consumption volume in the Black River Area. To utilize the Zhangye oasis water resources in a proper way or not would have a direct effect on the economy, ecosystem and society development of the middle and lower reaches. The traditional research about the comprehensive utilization of water resources for oasis agriculture has been carried out from resource, administration and management for some years. Therefore the solutions and means to utilize and program the river water resources are limited and would be only focus on the water supply-demand analysis, and the decision would be taken mainly by the experience, which is short of multi-target comprehensive analysis that is based on economic returns analysis. This would be a handicap for people to design a reasonable mode about the oasis water-soil resources development and utilization.The writer visited certain oasis in Gansu province, including Wuwei, Zhangye, Jiuquan and so on, and collected various actual information and carried out investigation and research about the nature and economy situation there, especially about the agriculture production and water utilization. Based on the reality of Zhangye oasis water resources utilization, and supported by the environmental economics theory, this paper is to research and analyze the agriculture water utilization in the oasis, including Sunan, Minle, Shandan, Zhangye, Linze, Gaotai sincel970s. To analyze the economic benefit of the unit provision output effected by the labor-flooding water volumes based on both the real collected data and the statistical data provided by the Stat. Dept in the past years; the checking standard for output benefit is the unit provision out put the input parameters are water, fertilizer, power-supply and the cone -erned factors occurred during the agriculture production. The computation should be as below: first to process and analyze the data with software - SAS, SPSS and so on; then to set up linear production function, Cobb-Douglass production function and quadraticproduction function; and to calculate total returns, marginal returns and average returns; and finally to carry out comparative analysis about all the computation results of different methods.The analysis illustrates that: the total return of water resources for Zhangye oasis agriculture is increasing by degrees as times goes by, and it would be fluctuated accordingly by the natural disaster; the average returns are comparetively high at the period of late 1990s and early 1980s; the marginal returns are decreasing by degrees as the water consumption increase; and the water resources marginal returns in Linze and Zhangye are nearly of zero. As for the space distribution, the average returns and marginal returns of agriculture consumption in the mountain spring area are higher than those in the well area, which shows that the mountain area has bigger production potential. Among all the mathematical methods to analyze the water resources economic efficiency, Cobb-Douglas production function is the most simple and efficient one.How to quantize the technical improvement factors in agriculture production has been added into the model as an input essential for it, in order to gain a more objective conclusion according to the reality. However this is the difficulty that we have not overcome in the paper. On the other hand, How to combine the economic development and the influence caused by nature disaster, and to eliminate the clearance caused by the production... |
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