The Establishment And Application Of LCFORSKA Model In The Research On Global Climate Change

LCFORSKA model is established and applied to predict the forest dynamic process in the ecotone of Pinus koraiensis and Larix gmelini under the global climate change in the paper.Based on FORSKA model, with the addition of tree-species environment and climate variables, LCFORSKA model is established, which adapts to research dynamic process of the forest under global climate change.The ecotone is the most sensitive zone for the vegetation dynamic research on the global climate change, so the sensitive ecotone of Pinus koraiensis and Larix gmelini was chosen as simulation zone, which locates 49.5 N?1 N . In the simulation zone, three stimulant points are chosen. In each point, 5 patches with the area of lOOmXlOOm are simulated and run 20 times simultaneously, and ultimately the average biomass value of the three points is used as the average value of the ecotone. The simulation is begun from barren under current climate condition, and the model is run 400 years, when forest succession reaches dynamic balance. The simulation after the climate change is begun from existing forest which is gotten from simulation, and the model is run 1000 years, when succession reaches dynamic balance basically.The rusult from simulation indicates that the component of stands has obvious change on account of climate disturbance before and after the climate change. Queer mongolica which is 40% before decrease to 7% after climate change, and larix gmelini which is 6% before disappear after climate change and Pinus koraiensis which is zero before increase to 4. 7%. It presents that mixed broad forests which is dominated by Queer mongolica will evolve to broad leafed Pinus Kori ensis forests which is dominated by Pinus koraiensis. Pinus koraiensis begins from nothing to some in simulant point, which indicates the northern boundary of its distribution will move north, and larix gmelini from some to nothing which indicates the southern boundary of its adaptive distribution will move north on account of the climate change. The reason for this obvious difference in simulant results before and after the climate change is analyzed, as not only the climate warms up ni.it the rainfall increases.