The Investigation On Safety Risk Evaluation Of Submarine

Submarine is praised as"The ghost of the ocean". It holds the balance in the sea battles since its naissance. Its favorable covert capability and powerful aggressive capability could even make a decisive effect in a war or battle. However, more risk is still coming up with the powerful aggressive capability. The accident of a submarine economical expense, personnel casualty, and even weaken of one country's military affairs capability.As a result of the less natal time, although it has very important significance to make an evaluation on submarines, the acquaintanceship and the rebuild of the submarine in the military affairs field is under a exploring phase. The inner system of submarines is changing and ameliorating ceaseless along with the reform and use of the high-tech. Many investigative ways on submarines are blank. According to the definition of system, a submarine is a complex bulkily system. The analysis of the diversification of a submarine system became to more complex as the influence and restrict between these systems. The navigational area including the entire ocean and the entire undersea water environment has its uncertainty and randomicity. The submariners can easily be tired and make any operational mistakes on the weak working condition. The management has no grade, the reliability of man-machine system has no criterion, in addition to all kinds of restrict and disturb in the war and the capability of cooperate campaign with other naval ships has no criterion. It exist many difficulties due to all above seasons.A new method of ascertain evaluating index system which is based on weight coefficient analytic hierarchy process index filtration is presented by applying linear programming and restraint cone range estimation on index vectors on the basis of analyzing the negative effect of the decision-making by weak weights index after the reason of the matrix inconsistency is investigated at present. On the basis of finishing the investigation of submarine risk affairs, a submarine safety risk estimate index system is presented .A new math model on submarine risk evaluation which is based on interval numbers gray theory and AHP theory is presented too. A imaginary submarine is evaluated and the rationality of the evaluation flow has been assessed.The production of this paper could reinforce the acknowledge of the potential submarine risk and risk level by submariners. This investigation refers to systems of manifold scientific fields. Although this paper emphases on the method research of submarine risk evaluation, it is the first time to investigate on comprehensive risk evaluation on submarine. The estimate index system has further value. It has momentous academic significance and important practical value.