Research On Ship Traffic Volume Forecasting

In recent years, ship traffic volume of the important channels including the civil inshore and ChangJiang river has been increased rapidly. On one hand ,these channels contribute greatly to economic and social development .On the other hand increased volume caused a mass of accidents and loss which requires a higher standard on channel programming and safety management. Ship traffic volume forecasting is the science to provide foundation to the channel programming and safety management.Ship traffic volume forecasting is a new domain which combines water traffic engineering with economic forecasting. Due to so many involved factors and indexes, it is more complicated than the general economic forecasting and needs different methods or combinations based on different conditions.This paper studied the macro composite systematic forecasting model (CSFM) which is brought forward by professor LuJing and FangXiangLin . Aiming at the single model selection and the invariable weight in combination, the paper put forward a model-selection system on the selection of group forecasting models which took part in the combination forecast;also aiming at the invariable weight, the paper put foreword a fuzzy variable combination forecasting method.By applying the improved model to the ship traffic volume of two ports, the results proved that the amelioration makes the forecasting more reasonable and effective.