The Application Of Grey System Theory In The Safety Production Of An Tai Bao Open-pit Coal Mine

This thesis pointed out that coal safety was the key issue of the health and sustainabledevelopment of coal enterprise, by analyzing the important status of coal industry in nationaleconomy and the actuality of safety production of coal enterprise. Aiming at theindetermination in the safety production and management system of strip mine, the thesis putforward accident forecast and analysis model in mine by using grey system theory and whatnot. And through to model the thesis can predict the trend of accident happening and therelative relation of factor, the essay offered the basis to the measure with pertinence thatenterprise would take. The content of the thesis is as followed:(1)On the basis of data Statistics of safety production in strip mine, the thesis analyzedprimary cause factors which influenced on safety production of mine.(2)This thesis applied GM(1,1)model to predict of accident casualty rate of strip mine,and amended on it with residual error correction time after time , which acquired good resultsand improved precision and accuracy of forecast results.(3)According to the actual production of strip mine, the thesis chose factors whichinfluenced on accident casualty rate and analyzed incidence on it with improved greycorrelative analysis methods, which acquired correlative order of it. Thus we have a definiteobject in view and can master emphases of safety works.(4)Aiming at trait that there is a high proportion that machinery and equipment wereused in strip mine, the thesis attempted to adopt grey disasters prediction methods to predictabnormal years of machinery and equipment accident in strip mine, and Introduced buffer weakening operator in data processing , which reduced error and put forward the basis to theeffective disaster prevention and mitigation measures that the mine has taken.The mostly parts of this thesis belonged to applied research. It aimed at opening up new achannel. The new channel is that this thesis opened for estimate and prediction control ofsafety production management system in strip mine by building prediction and analysismodel of indicator of safety production management in mine.