The Dynamic Analysis And Modeling On The Desertification In Beijing And Its Neighboring Area

Desertification is one of the most serious environment and social economic problem nowadays in the world. Desertification causes extensive concern of international academia with its development speed and serious calamity. It's very significant to study quantitatively the relationship between desertification drive factors and desertification, and to build up dynamic simulation model based on that to forecast the development of the desertification.Based on field research and the dynamic analysis of remote sensing data of different time(1987 TM, 1996 TM and 2000 China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite CCD), using multi-information of research area (including data of geology, geography, hydrology, meteorology, economy, human culture and DEM) and existing research results, the dissertation discusses drive factors of desertification and the relationships between drive factors and desertification with the help of GIS tool and some mathematical methods such as probability, statistics, curvilinear estimation, logical analysis and analytic hierarchy process. Then the dissertation discusses how to apply 3S technology and cellular automata model to build a dynamic simulation model of desertification under the direct of earth systemic science theory. Finally, the dissertation realizes the simulation model-GeoCA-Desertification by the AML program language, based on ARCVIEW and ARCINFO software, and applies it to simulate the evolution of desertification in Beingjing and its neighboring area.Based on comprehensive analysis above, the dissertation puts forward the idea that desertification is a complicated geological phenomena caused by the complex interaction of the earth's layers during the course of geoevolution. Natural factors play a dominant role during the course of desertification evolution. And climatic variation is a main factor affecting desertification. The sustained period of water deficit is a direct cause of desertification in arid and semi-arid areas. The tectonic activities of lithosphere control the distribution of desertification by constructing geomorphology. The loss of biological productivity mainly caused by climate variability and unsustainable human activity leads to the fast development of desertification.According to the occurring and developing characteristics of the desertification in Beijing and its neighboring area, the dissertation puts forward systemic measures and proposes to fight against desertification. The dissertation provides a scientific decision-making foundation for fighting against desertification in Beijing and its neighboring area to realize the land's rational utilizing and the sustainable development of region's society, economy and environment.