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The Study Of Vegetable Price Fluctuation And Its Relationship With The Climate Based On Wavelet Analysis

Posted on:2009-12-11Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J DuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2120360272488534Subject:Ecology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Vegetables are important economic crops in our country. For a long time, the vegetable industry had played the unsubstituted role in enriching urban residents' basket, prospering rural economy, increasing farmers' income and foreign trade earning. However, in recent years, with the cultivated area expansion and continuous high-yield for several years, the market tended to saturation. Besides, with the influence of the rising input products' price and the climate disasters, the staple vegetables' output presented seasonal, regional and structural surplus. On the one hand, the vegetable price rises sharply and fluctuate intensely, which resulted in strong reaction from the foundation residents, on the other hand, the competition increased and the vegetable growers' income decreased sharply. Both the producers and the consumers were not satisfied with the current situation. So it is full of practical significance to study recent vegetables' price fluctuation and explore the underlying factors, which can provide the basic information on stabilizing fluctuation. As the developed province of vegetable production in China, Jiangsu is in the first group in regionalization, specialization, large-scale production, market distribution and quality control on vegetable production. To a certain extent, Jiangsu represents the developing direction of vegetable industry in China. Therefore, taking it as our study blueprint will provide a reference for other provinces on vegetable industry in China.Accordingly, combining the quantitative and qualitative methods, this paper attempted to introduce wavelet analysis, Hierarchical cluster analysis, coefficient of variation and other methods to the study of wholesale vegetable market price sequence in Jiangsu Province, and summarize the characteristics of space-time pattern and internal factors so as to provide scientific information for decision-making. The basic viewpoints are as follow: 1. Cycle: 12 and 6 months are the common characteristic cycle in vegetables prices fluctuation. 12 months seasonal cycle is the main cycle; 6 months cycle has differences in varieties and regions, which occurs mostly near the seasonal fluctuation period and distributes in a non-continuous state. There is no obvious regional difference in Jiangsu province on vegetable price cycle. Compared with other provinces, Shantou (southern China) performs a simple price cycle while Mudanjiang (Northeast China) plays in a more complex form. But the seasonal cycle is still the region's main cycle.2. Fluctuation form: The difference of fluctuations form is small in different years but large in different regions. The solanaceous fruits, leafy and root vegetables prices fluctuate similarly in inner-variety while melon, scallion and tuber taro vegetables prices perform larger differences in inner-variety.3. Price level: Solanaceous fruits, mushrooms, legumes and small-size melons has higher price level while leafy and common root vegetables has lower price level. The price levels in Nanjing and Shantou are higher than that in Xuzhou and Mudanjiang. In recent 7 years the vegetable price level in Jiangsu is rising generally. The price grew faster in vegetables with high price level.4. Fluctuation intensity: the fluctuation intensity in tuber taro vegetables, lotus root and tomatoes are small while that is higher in leafy, melons and other Solanaceous fruits vegetables. The fluctuation intensity of price in Nanjing and Shantou is lower than that in Xuzhou and Mudanjiang. In recent 7 years the vegetable price fluctuation intensity is decreasing generally in Jiangsu.5. Influencing factor: temperature, precipitation and sunshine time affect the price of vegetable. The direction and degree of the affection depend on region and variety. The temperature impacts on seasonal fluctuation and fluctuation intensity. The precipitation influence seasonal fluctuation, 6 months short-cycle change and fluctuation intensity change. The precipitation play the most important role among the three climatic factors.
Keywords/Search Tags:Wavelet analysis, vegetable price fluctuation, space-time characteristic, climatic factors
PDF Full Text Request
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