Research On The Impacts Of Digital Transformation On Human Resource Demands And Forecasts In Agricultural Bank Of China

In recent years,with the rapid development of financial technology,especially the impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020,it has promoted a new round of digital transformation.Financial institutions,represented by commercial banks,have begun to explore approaches to accelerate retail financial services towards no-touch service,online management and intelligent operation on the basis of digital transformation exploration and pilot in the previous years.In the era of digital transformation,the development of financial business can not be separated from the support of human resouces.The development of digital transformation not only requires commercial banks to innovate and change their management mode,products and business processes,but also poses higher challenges to human resources planning.Human resource demand analysis is an important part of human resource planning.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of digital transformation on human resource demand of commercial banks.At present,human resource planning in financial banking enterprises faces some challenges.First,there is a lack of quantitative evaluation of the matching degree between personnel scale and business development.Second,the quantitative analysis of the impact of digital transformation on human resource demands is not enough.Third,it is not accurate to predict the changing trend of personnel scale and structure.This paper conducts an in-depth study on the impact of digital transformation on the personnel demand of Agricultural Bank of China(ABC)and make personnel structure predictions in the following five years.This study will fill the theoretical gap of the impact of digital transformation on the personnel demand of financial banking enterprises and provide practical guidance for human resource planning in financial banking enterprises.In this study,theoretical research and empirical analysis are combined.First,the DEA-Malmquist method is used to make a comparative analysis of the input-output efficiency of the 17 domestic listed banks,including ABC,as well as the input-output efficiency of the ABC's branches.The results verify the hypothesis that the ABC's staff scale is large and its personnel input-output efficiency is low,which provides the basis for further research in the following chapters.Second,after reviewing relevant theories and academic articles,this study puts forward research hypotheses of the impact of digital transformation on the personnel demands.This study quantitatively analyzes the factors that influence the personnel demand in different positions of commercial bank,and explores the influence mechanism of digital transformation on the personnel demand.Finally,using the Markov process principle,the personnel structure prediction model is established.The personnel scale and structure of ABC in 2021-2025 are predicted,which is in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan.This study draws the following conclusions:(1)ABC had a large scale of employees with low per capita input-output efficiency.Moreover,the input-output efficiencies in different regions are unbalanced.It has the largest number of employees among the 17 listed commercial banks,but its comprehensive input-output efficiency ranks the 12th among the 17 banks,belonging to the middle and lower reaches.The comprehensive input-output efficiency of the ABC's branches in the Pearl River Delta region was the highest,followed by the branches in Yangtze River Delta region and the Bohai Rim region,and those in the northeast and western regions were the worst.(2)Digital transformation has effectively reduced the demands for staffs.From2011 to 2015,the staff scale of ABC increased along with the business increased.However,from 2015 to 2020,the staff scale decreased along with the business increased,which was highly consistent with the digital transformation strategy implemented by the enterprise from around 2015.(3)Digital transformation has different impacts on different positions of ABC.Digital transformation has significant effects on the needs of counter staffs,marketing staffs,information technology(IT)staffs and management staffs.Specifically,one percentage increases in the electronic channel diversion rate,the demand for counter staffs decreases by 1958.39.100 million yuan increase in online loans,the demand for marketing staffs decreases by 1.65.10,000 people increase in the number of online individual customers,the demand for marketing staffs increases by 0.29.100 million yuan increase in online loans,the demand for IT staff increases by 0.11.One percentage increases in the proportion of online individual customers,the demand for IT staffs increases by 63.83.100 million yuan increase in online loans,the demand for management staffs decrease by 6.66.(4)With the deepening of digital transformation,the total personnel demand of ABC continues to decline during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.However,the marginal effect of digital transformation is decreasing,and the future personnel demand may show a U-shaped growth.The natural growth of business scale and customer scale will promote the increase of personnel demand of ABC.The deepening of digital transformation strategy will simultaneously reduce personnel demand,and the reduction effect will still exceed the increase effect brought by the natural growth of business and customers.Therefore,the total personnel demand shows a continuous downward trend.It is estimated that by the end of 2025,the staff size of ABC will decrease by about 5%compared with the end of 2020.However,the marginal effect of digital transformation on the reduction of personnel demand is decreasing,and the total personnel demand may show a U-shaped growth in the future.(5)During the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025),the personnel structure of the ABC(including age and educational structure)will be greatly improved.Digital transformation puts forward high requirements for the comprehensive ability and quality of the personnel and promotes the bank to supplement the newly-added personnel mainly with highly educated staffs,which will greatly improve the personnel structure.It is estimated that by the end of 2025,the proportion of people under the age of 40 in the bank will increase by about 25 percentage compared with the end of 2020.The proportion of people with bachelor's degree or above will increase by about 27 percentage compared with the end of 2020.This paper has the following four contributions:(1)This study reveals the influence of digital transformation on the needs of different positions.This study focuses on the impact of digital transformation on the personnel needs of the given bank,and reveals the different impacts of digital transformation on the needs of various positions.This study reveals the influence pattern of digital transformation on the personnel demands,fills in the quantitative research on this field at the micro level,and provides an important reference for the related research of other banks and financial institutions.(2)The Lasso method is applied to screen the driving variables of the impact of digital transformation on human resource demand.Using the Lasso method which is one of machine learning technologies,this study have effectively screened many variables that may affect the demand of a bank's staff,identified the influencing variables of digital transformation,and effectively solved the problem of variable multicollinearity.It enriches and expands the practical application of the Lasso method in the field of the influence of technological progress on human resource demand.(3)The prediction model of personnel structure based on Markov process principle is optimized.In this paper,the forecasting model of personnel structure of the given bank is constructed by combining case study and Markov process principle.The distribution of new personnel's age and educational status are introduced in establishing the model,which makes the transition matrix of personnel's status more scientific and accurate.The model related to Markov process principle is optimized and reformed,which enriches the theoretical research on personnel structure prediction.In practice,the prediction model established by this study has become an important decision-making reference for the 13th Five-Year Plan of human resources of ABC.The results and conclusions have been widely recognized by the ABC's senior managers.The model will be applied for the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan of human resources of ABC.(4)It reveals the growth curve of personnel scale of ABC.This study makes an empirical prediction on the changing trend in personnel structures from 2021 to 2025,and reveals that the number of staffs will show a continuous downward trend during the 14^thFive-Year Plan period.However,with the decreasing marginal effect of digital transformation,the future personnel demand may show a U-shaped growth.The conclusions provide a new perspective to study the impact of digital transformation on the personnel needs of financial institutions.In this paper,there are 27 figures,34 tables and 220 references.