The Scarcity Effect:the Impacts Of Scarcity Perception On Individual Risk Taking And Risky Choice

Scarcity usually refers to resources scarcity.The effects of resources that are closely related to individual survival and development on individual behaviors were not tested systematically.For instance,some prior research indicated that the reasons for the poor people's problematic behaviors(e.g.,impulsive behaviors,breaking the rules and to be more risk-seeking)are poverty,environment they lived in and their personality.Some other research indicated that even for individuals who did not lived in poverty,when they thought about situation in poverty they would also show the same cognitive functions and behaviors as people who live in poverty.Therefore,absolute money scarcity may not the only reason for the poor people's irrational behaviors.It provides possibility that the relative feeling of money scarcity,not only the absolute money scarcity would be one of reasons for such behaviors.On the basis of existing research and phenomena in daily lives,the present research focuses on the effect of resources scarcity perception on risky behaviors and its psychological mechanism at the individual level.Scarcity perception occurs when individuals feel they have less than they need or they want.Scarcity perception refers to individual subjective feeling of having less certain tangible resource or intangible resource than they need or they want.Different from absolute scarcity of resources,scarcity perception is the relative perception of resources scarcity.For example,scarcity perception occurs to individuals in poverty because they have too little money to meet their basic needs.To individuals who don't live in poverty,scarcity perception could also happen to them because of unaccomplished goals and unsatisfied social comparison beyond basic needs.Whether money,time or social supports,almost everyone could encounter situations of scarcity.People who live in condition of resource scarcity for a long time have been found to be more impulsive and risk-seeking.Then,what are the effects of relative scarcity perception on individual psychological and behavioral consequences?How the scarcity perception affects individual risk-taking behaviors and risky choices?What accounts for the scarcity effect?With the above questions,according to the Life History Theory,Risk Sensitivity Theory,Social Comparison Theory,Scarcity Mindset Theory and existing studies,this dissertation proposes the main hypothesis that scarcity perception increases risk taking.There are three studies(recruited 3141 research volunteers),including 11 experiments,a questionnaire survey and a scale development study,are designed to test the effect of scarcity on risk taking and its psychological mechanism.In study 1,two laboratory experiments(experiment 1 and experiment 2)and two field experiments(experiment 3 and experiment 4)provided evidence that scarcity perception increases risk-taking propensity and risk-taking behavior in the real world.Conclusions in study 1 are as below:(1)scarcity perception increases risk-taking propensity;(2)the perceived money scarcity increases ethical risk taking;(3)perceived money scarcity and perceived time scarcity have the same impacts on ethical risk taking.In addition,in risk-return frames,study 1 found scarcity perception could aggrandize the expected benefits,but the effect of scarcity perception on risk perception was not uniform.The relationships between scarcity perception,expected benefits,risk perception and risk-taking propensity were further analyzed in study 3.In study 2,three experiments provided evidence that scarcity perception increases probability of selecting a higher risky option.Study 2 found:(1)in the risky choices offered a sure gain,scarcity perception increases probability of selecting the safe option;(2)in the risky choices provided only risky options,scarcity perception increases probability of selecting the high risk/high reward options;(3)the higher the level of scarcity perception was,the more individuals would choose risky options.It also found(1)individual with scarcity perception took more risks based on need,and individual with abundance perception took more risks based on ability;(2)resources scarcity could trigger individual inequality perception.In study 3,perceived money scarcity scale was developed.It consisted of four sub-scales(fifteen items in total)of feeling of poverty,emotions caused by perceived scarcity,the sense of insecurity and the sense of inequality.Then,the scale was adopted in experiments in study 3 to test the mediating effects.Study 3 found:(1)the effect of scarcity perception on risk-taking propensity is mediated by expected benefits;(2)the effect of scarcity perception on risky choices is mediated by decision making competence.Scarcity perception reduces the framing effect of valence problems.By improving the resistance to framing,scarcity perception reduces the possibility of choosing risky options.(3)The effects of scarcity perception on risk-taking propensity and risky choices in negative frames are mediated by cognitive reflection.The higher cognitive reflection score,the lower probability that individuals choose the riskier options.(4)The stronger the scarcity emotion,the sense of insecurity and the sense of inequality caused by the perceived scarcity,the more individuals take risks in the fields of financial,gambling and morality.