| China is in a stage of social transition,with an increase in various interests and demands,hot issues and emergencies,and the study of various emergencies such as natural disasters,accidents and disasters,public health incidents and social security incidents has become an important part of the overall national security concept.The report of the 19 th Party Congress emphasizes that "coordinating development and security,enhancing the sense of worry,and thinking of danger in times of peace is a major principle of our Party's governance",and in 2014,Xi Jinping,General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee,President of the State,Chairman of the Central Military Commission,and Chairman of the Central National Security Commission,presided over the first meeting of the Central National Security Commission meeting,proposed to adhere to the overall national security concept,take people's security as the purpose,and walk out a national security road with Chinese characteristics.Xi Jinping pointed out that emergency management for emergencies "is an important part of the national governance system and governance capacity,taking on the important responsibility of preventing and resolving major security risks,timely response and disposal of various types of disasters and accidents,and taking on the important mission of protecting the lives and property of the people and maintaining social stability".It can be seen that in recent years the idea of national security has risen to an important guiding position.At present,China has become one of the most serious countries in the world of various accidents and disasters,facing the problem of prevention of catastrophic risks,the challenge of public health events,social security type risks,many types of disasters,wide distribution of geographic areas,high frequency of occurrence,causing heavy losses.The many effects of major emergencies seriously threaten the social stability of our country and the safety of people's lives and property.In this context,the evolution mechanism of major emergencies has become a major practical problem that needs to be solved.Based on the system theory and 5W1 H theoretical approach,we integrate knowledge mapping theory and event mapping theory to study the evolution VI mechanism of major emergencies,construct a model of the evolution mechanism of major emergencies,and propose response strategies for major emergencies on the basis of empirical analysis of the evolution mechanism of major emergencies.(1)Constructing the evolution mechanism model of major emergencies,defining the connotation of the evolution mechanism of major emergencies based on the system theory and the 5W1 H analysis method,breaking through the traditional limitations of studying the evolution mechanism of major emergencies from a single dimension,interpreting the evolution elements of major emergencies and the logical relationship between elements from a system viewpoint,and proposing that the constituent elements of major emergencies mainly include the elements of subject behavior(Who),the elements of event public opinion information(What),the elements of event reasoning(Why),the elements of event time(When),and the elements of event space(Where).We systematically study the evolution mechanism of major emergencies from the multidimensional perspectives of Who(who promotes and facilitates the evolution of the event),What(what is the content of the evolution of the event),and Why(what is the cause of the evolution of the event),and finally propose the response strategy(How)of major emergencies based on the evolution mechanism of the event.(2)The evolution mechanism of major emergencies is interpreted from the dimension of the subjective behavior of major emergencies(Who),and the evolution of the subjective behavior of the event is explained.Based on the evolutionary game theory,we analyze the evolution of the subjective behavior of major emergencies,and clarify that the game subject is composed of the decision-making party represented by the government,the participating party represented by netizens,and the driving party represented by the media,and analyze the game motives and influencing factors and construct the evolutionary game model.Finally,the game model is simulated and analyzed to simulate the evolution of the behavior of the three subjects under the scenarios of the heat of the event development,the continuous deterioration of the negative impact of the event,and the intervention of the government reward and punishment mechanism,and the conclusions are drawn to provide a realistic reference basis for the management strategies of the subjects in the response to major emergencies.(3)The evolution mechanism of major emergencies is interpreted from the evolution dimension of public opinion information of major emergencies(What),and the content issue of the evolution of events is explained.Based on the knowledge mapping theory,the framework model and technical architecture of the event public opinion knowledge map are proposed,and then the event public opinion knowledge map is constructed,and the public opinion knowledge map is used to mine the triad of public opinion knowledge and the path structure of network communication.Based on the data-driven idea,the process of topic evolution of event public opinion and network structure evolution of public opinion knowledge is obtained through further extraction and analysis of public opinion knowledge.The obtained analysis conclusions on the evolution of event public opinion information are beneficial to the public opinion governance in response to major emergencies.(4)The mechanism of the evolution of major emergencies is interpreted from the logical dimension(Why)of the evolution of major emergencies,and the problem of the causes of the evolution of events is explained.Based on the event knowledge gragh,major public health emergencies event knowledge gragh and its abstract event knowledge gragh are constructed by using the relevant methods of event knowledge gragh,including ontology construction,event extraction,and event relationship extraction.Based on the event knowledge gragh of major public health emergencies,the knowledge of the event logic in the evolution of major public health emergencies is explored,and the evolution patterns among the events are analyzed in depth,which makes up for the shortcomings of the past failure to elaborate the evolution mechanism and operation process of major public health emergencies at the micro level.Based on the knowledge-driven perspective,the logic and laws of evolution of major emergencies are revealed through the analysis of the evolution of event logic knowledge,the exploration of the transmission path of event evolution,and the analysis of the motivation of event evolution,so as to grasp the development of major emergencies and provide a scientific and accurate basis for the response.(5)Proposes coping strategies for major emergencies(How).Based on the evolution mechanism of the event,the coping strategy of major emergencies is derived,and the question of how to cope with the situation of emergencies is explained.Based on the research content of the event evolution mechanism,the response strategies are proposed from three levels:(1)subject management strategies based on the evolution of the behavior of the subject of the event;(2)public opinion information management countermeasures based on the evolution of public opinion information of major emergencies;(3)major emergencies control issues based on the three dimensions of the evolution of the behavior of the subject of the event,the evolution of the public opinion information of the event,and the logic of the event evolution.On the theoretical level,based on various theoretical methods such as system theory,evolutionary game theory,knowledge mapping theory,event knowledge gragh and 5W1 H,we construct a mechanism model for the evolution of major emergencies from a multi-dimensional perspective such as the evolution of the subject of the event,the evolution of the event public opinion information and the matter logic mining of the event evolution.Through game theory,knowledge mapping and event knowledge gragh,we analyze the evolution mechanism of major emergencies,elaborate the essence of the evolution of events,discover the problems in the evolution of events,and finally propose the response strategies for the evolution of major emergencies.Based on the data-driven idea,the evolution process of major emergencies is revealed in multiple dimensions,and based on the knowledge-driven idea,the logic of the evolution of major emergencies is unearthed,which promotes the transformation of the traditional research paradigm and the scientific understanding of the evolution process of major emergencies,which can improve the analysis,research and early warning of major emergencies and the overall situational awareness of events,and has important theoretical significance.At the practical level,by crawling relevant data of major emergencies on platforms such as Weibo,China News Network,and World Health Organization website,we construct a knowledge map of public opinion on major emergencies and a matter map,and empirically analyze the theoretical deduction part based on real data,which ultimately serves the response to major emergencies.This paper adopts the research logic of total-division-total,combining theory and practice,with a view to providing a basis for scientific research and precise policy-making by relevant departments,greatly enhancing the intelligence and specialization of social governance,and promoting and facilitating the modernization of China's governance system and governance capacity. |
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