States, water, and climate: Who's planning for change

The primary objective of this study is to determine what drives water planners to plan for the impacts of a changing climate. As the climate continues to change, climate scientists have projected changes in water quantities available for human and other uses. This multimethod study addresses these questions through three interlinked studies focusing on state level data and planning.;The first study examines how Americans form policy preferences on climate change. This question is particularly relevant in today's environment of decreasing public support, especially from 2008 onward, for climate change initiatives even as climate scientists' confidence in future global warming increases. Results from previous research reporting several significant predictor variables for climate change policy preferences including scientific knowledge, partisan identification, general environmental beliefs, and vulnerability are tested with contemporary data at the state level. I found that following the 2008 election, partisan identification became a much stronger predictor at the state level while the other predictors diminished in importance.;The second study examines how state water plans and state hazard mitigation plans address climate change. Plans were coded for the extent to which they address climate change in their calculations for future supply and demand. Multivariable Linear Regression models were developed to test the predictive value of independent variables including statewide voting, vulnerability to climate change, and recent experience with droughts and natural disasters. The most significant predictor variable for both state water planning and state hazard mitigation planning was the statewide voting record. Democratic leaning states were much more likely to plan for climate change in their plans than were Republican leaning states.;The third study is a qualitative comparison of the Texas and California state water plans. These two states were chosen because of their political differences but otherwise largely similar challenges with water resources, projected decreases in available water resources due to climate change, similar water planning paradigms at the state level, and similar demographics. While Texas is maintaining a traditional water planning effort focusing on infrastructure construction and conservation, California is focusing on environmental protection, social equity, and has adopted a scenario based approach accounting for uncertainties not only from climate change but also from population growth and changing demand patterns.