| The variation in wind curl over the ocean leads to surprisingly large north-south variability in the computed oceanic response over the subtropical gyre. The peak-to-peak sea level differences are as great as 20 cm and persist for many years. In addition to the open-ocean variability, one of the puzzling features of sea level on the east coast of the United States is a similar, decadal-scale variability; the fluctuations are 10 to 15 cm, peak to peak, at periods longer than a few years. The primary goal of the work described here is to understand the cause(s) of this variability. Furthermore, these large fluctuations at the coast raises the obvious question. Is there similar variability in the slope of sea level across the Gulf Stream and consequently in transport?;Using the results of our wind-forced open ocean model, we can determine the ocean variability with a satisfactory degree of accuracy. Once these fluctuations in the thermocline reach the western side of the ocean, the transport is conserved as the signal enters the Gulf Stream. The computed fluctuations at the boundary are compared with observations at tide gauges. Between 80 and 90% of the variance can be explained, depending on the details of the calculation. |
