Natural forces, human choices: An over time study of responses to biophysical and human induced disturbance in Los Angeles, California groundwater governance

One of the most important questions confronting modern natural resources management involves the ability of governance mechanisms to adapt to changes in environmental and social conditions. This project seeks to build knowledge regarding human ability to adapt governance mechanisms to changing circumstances through examining four groundwater basins underlying Los Angeles County, California. The basins include: the Raymond Basin, the West Basin, the Central Basin, and the Main San Gabriel Basin. Over the past century, each of the basins has served as a vital source of freshwater in semi-arid Southern California, but have also been subject to increasing demand, dropping groundwater levels, diminished groundwater quality, and a variety of other disturbances.;I examine three questions regarding the relationship between altered conditions and institutional change: (1) Have effective institutions been created and changed in response to disturbances over time? (2) Have responses to known disturbances introduced additional fragility into the system? (3) How have polycentric institutional structures impacted outcomes?;Drawing on the literature of new institutional economics, and applying a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches, I conclude that disturbance can induce institutional change. However, change often occurs after long lags from the time the disturbance is discovered. This facet of the relationship between disturbance and institutional change makes modeling of the processes leading to change difficult. The institutional arrangements created in response to disturbances have also demonstrated a significant amount of path dependence. Once created, the mechanisms remain in place over long time horizons.;I identify variable results regarding the effectiveness of the institutions created in response to change. On the whole, the basins continue to serve as a source of fresh water for the people of Los Angeles County despite a wide variety of disturbances. West Basin and Central Basin appear to have better controlled the problem of continuing overdraft than Main San Gabriel Basin and Raymond Basin. Main San Gabriel and Raymond Basins have also experienced larger problems with chemical contamination, but West and Central Basins have experienced more difficulty with corruption and conflict between basins.;I further find that while humans are capable of effectively responding to disturbance, those responses inevitably involve tradeoffs that may lead to additional fragility to less foreseen or anticipated disturbances. Such fragility is especially apparent in context of imported water. Although basin management has become quite robust to local water shortages through reliance on imported water, recent variability in imported water due to legal and administrative challenges and environmental changes has led to new fragility. Regarding polycentric interactions, I determine that the polycentric arrangements governing the groundwater basins provide both positive and negative outcomes.