Urban Sustainable Intensive Land Use Evaluation And Prediction Research

Land resources is the important material basis for cityes development and the spatial carrier for human activities.The utilization pattern of land resources is determined by both human behavior and social development,and will affect the future human activities and the economic growth patterns.Therefore,the rational use of land resources is an important basis for promoting economic growth and ensuring the smooth implementation of sustainable development strategy.Intensive development is one of the signs of human social progress,and rational intensification is our continuous pursuit.However,it is still challenging to evaluate the rational intensive of land use.Based on the principle and method of intensified variable,this study takes the indicators of rational utilization of land,the land ecological carrying capacity and the decoupling relationship between the value of ecological service and economic growth as the evaluation factors of city sustainable development to modify the intensified variable,establishes intensified variable model,studies the degree of sustainable intensive use of land,analyzes the current land intensive utilization stage by studying the input and output of capital and labor factors in the land resources,analyzes the reasonable interval of factor input,and verifies the rationality of the model.Using the sustainable intensified variable evaluation model,the two municipalities of Beijing and Shanghai were used as model application and comparison objects.The status and development process of land intensive use between the two cities during 2003-2017 were evaluated.The results show that in the land use process between Beijing and Shanghai in 2003-2017,the intensive degree increased rapidly in the fluctuations,which increased by 213% and 91.8% respectively in the fifteen years,it indicates that during the research period,with the continuous increase of capital factors and labor factors input on the land,the land use of the two cities develops towards the direction of intensification.In the case of single capital investment,the marginal benefits and average benefits of capital investment in Beijing and Shanghai decreased with the increase of input,which indicates that the level of land capital intensification in Beijing and Shanghai is in the stage of gradual transition from intensification to over-intensification.However,compared with the data in Shanghai,the marginal benefits of capital in Beijing is larger and the average benefits is smaller,which indicates that the current capital input and output benefit of Shanghai is better than that of Beijing.By comparing and analyzing the trend and degree of the marginal benefits and average benefits of labor factors in Beijing and Shanghai with the input of labor factor,it is judged that between 2003 and 2017,the labor factor in Beijing and Shanghai showed excessive investment in the input of land resources,and land use was in an excessively intensive state of labor.Based on the study of system dynamics,the system dynamics model of sustainable land intensive use evaluation is constructed and verified by computer simulation technology.Through the analysis of land use planning and urban development master plan,the direction and goal of urban development can be determined.On this basis,four development scenarios were set up to simulate the development of Beijing and Shanghai respectively under different scenarios in order to seek the sustainable intensive land use mode in the city.The results show that in the future construction of the two cities,the factors affecting the city development should be considered comprehensively and harmoniously,and the social benefit,economic benefit and ecological benefit in the process of balanced development should be adopted to meet the regional sustainable development.