A Study On The Evolution And Influence Of China's Family Planning Policy

The third plenary session and the fifth plenary session of 18 th National Assembly of CCP,have made great adjustments to China's Family Planning policy.In early 2017 the State Council issued“The National Population Development Planning(2016-2030)”,regarding balanced development of the population as a major national strategy.All of these show that regulation goal of China's Family Planning Policy has been fundamentally changed.Different stages of China's population policy since 1949 have been systematically combed.On the chronological basis of qualitative description,with the method of Content Analysis in literature research,the content and structure of the family planning policy since the founding of PRC have been dug out and analyzed in clusters,to study policy measures and method choice under different policy goals.This is the first time in the current research of National Family Planning Policy and has an implementation implication towards the current lay-out of proportional measures of Family Planning Policy.The present research has mainly done the following study and drawn the following conclusions.According to the annual population data,the influence of family planning policy upon birth population gender ratio has been analyzed.The study shows,the relationship between family planning policy and birth population sex ratio is rather complex.Starting in the middle 1980 s,our country's birth population ratio deviated from the normal value.Although through the hard efforts of Chinese Government,the birth sex ratio declined after 2009,it is still at a high level currently.Quantitative research upon the relationship between policies and aging population shows that the population policy leads to a decrease in birth population and the rise of labor-age population,forming a very good economic development period of "demographic dividend".But this is also a process of accelerated aging population.The degree of aging population varies with the strict-or-slack policy.And the difference began to emerge after 21 century and became more and more severe.Family Planning Policy influences population structure and natural population increase rate,further influencing economic increase.Three indexes relevant to population structure,the ratio of the old cared,the ratio of the young cared,proportion of labor force from 15 years old to 64 years old,have been chosen,together with natural population increase rate,to reflect economic increase through GDP per capital.Multiple linear regression model has been established to research the impact ofthese indexes towards economic growth,indirectly showing the impact of family planning policy towards economic growth.The results show that there is a very strong linear relationship in the model between economic growth and variables like natural population increase rate,the three ratios and gross real estate investment.Leslie Model has been chosen to predict the impact of national two-child policy towards population number and population structure.The findings show that two-child policy can obviously increase population number and delay the beginning of population decrease,also obviously preventing the tendencies of population aging index to relieve the aging process.As for the impact towards economic growth,the growth rate will remain basically the same during 2015 and 2030.After2030,due to the influence of two-child policy,the ratios of the young cared,the old cared and the proportion of population from 15 to 64 will manifest evident changes and policy effects begin to emerge thus boosting economic growth.Facing the fact that child-bearing age population's childbearing will and the total fertility rate both fall down,government should play its leading role in the balancing and sustainable development of China's population.To effectively implement comprehensive two-child policy,and realize the requiring goals of national population developments planning,the government should bear the responsibility,optimize the system,and deal with various challenges.Especially,the government should speed up the construction of elderly-type public policy system,solve the trap of taking care of the old,lay out forward-looking education policy to solve the fatigue of raising another small child,and reduce the cost of public health services to relieve the worries of giving birth to another baby.The final goal is to make the public willing to reproduce,able to reproduce and raise the little in a better way.