Labor Migration And Industry Economy Provincial Differentiation

After the Reform and Opening-up Policy,China labor force presents a large-scale migration characteristic.Especially since the beginning of the 21 st century,the total amount of migration continues to increase.According to the Sixth National Census in 2010,there are 261 million people in 31 provinces,whose residence is not consistent with the township street where the household register is located and leaving the residence registration for more than half a year.Comparing with the Fifth National Census in 2000,population increases 117 million in 31 provinces,whose residence is not consistent with the township street where the household register is located and leaving the residence registration for more than half a year,increasing 81.03%.According to the development report of China's floating population,the total number of floating population in China has continued to increase after 2011,from 230 million in 2011 to 253 million in 2014.As of 2017,China's floating population is 245 million.In theory,labor migration will wipe out regional gap.But the gap in inflow provinces and outflow provinces fails to narrow and convergence,and provincial economic evolution trend has significant differentiations especially in New Normal.The economy of the eastern coastal areas where the labor force is flowing is growing rapidly,and the economic growth rate in the northeast and parts of the central and western regions of the labor outflow is slowing down or even falling.Economic differentiation not only leads to low allocation efficiency of provincial factors,but also causes a series of social problems.Moreover,the existing research fails to make an accurate and accurate answer to the question of economic interprovincial differentiation.Therefore,it is greatly significant and theoretical value to study the mechanism of economic differentiation in China and to explore how to restrain the differentiation in the frame of labor migration.At the period of labor migration and inter-provincial economic differentiation,provincial labor factor,which is representative of the demographic dividend,has also changed significantly.So it is not only necessary to combine with our country reality of labor migration and provincial differentiation to analyze regional characteristics of inflow and outflow regions from demographic dividend abundant to insufficient,disentangle relationship between labor migration and provincial economic differentiation,reveal the provincial labor migration mechanism and its changed dynamic mechanism of factor input and allocation eventually by labor migration,but also provide theoretical references for appropriate regional policies and industrial design in New Normal.The specific research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,introducing research background and significance,and proposing research questions and framework.Secondly,on the basis of population migration and economic evolution characteristics,this paper analyzes labor migration mechanism in the field of economics of population and labor economics,technology mechanism under the framework of neoclassical economics and Schumpeter innovation theory.And from the point of view of labor migration,the paper gives theoretical explanations of factors input and allocation and provincial economic differentiation,which lays a theoretical foundation for exploring labor migration and economic provincial differentiation.The empirical research on labor migration and provincial differentiation of industrial economy is based on the design of labor migration index,which is consistent,accurate and matching with macro economy.In third part,referencing to relative measure of transfer and change the way of employment,this paper selects 2000-2015 industrial enterprise employs and population data of 31 provinces,using ratio of population variation to measure relative workers migration.Industrial labor relative index is negative means labor outflow.Industrial labor relative index is positive means labor inflow.Industrial labor relative index switches from negative to positive means backflow.The measurement of provincial migration of industrial labor force is not only continuous and comparable,but also could depict the changing trend of labor relative increment during the provincial migration.Most importantly,labor migration depiction based on the relative number of employees can be effectively matched with macroeconomic indicators and suitable for the research framework of provincial differentiation.Fourthly,based on the labor migration measurement,this paper analyzes labor migration mechanism and change mechanism of capital returns differentiation.The empirical results show that wage gap is the principal cause of provincial labor mobility.And industrial labor outflow provinces in 2013 appeared to reduce labor supply,which supporting the academic point of demographic dividend closed.At the same time,due to the existence of "migration puzzle",the supply of labor factors in outflow regions keeps increasing.Accompanied by demographic dividend window closed,outflow regions have to choose continuous capital-labor substitution to solve the problem of labor price increasing,accelerating the diminishing marginal output factors of capital and leading to a sharp fall in the number of capital returns.The supplement of constant supply gap has avoided capital returns potential declining.Labor factor supply and the heterogeneity characteristics of the factors lead to the serious consequences of provincial differentiation of industrial capital returns.Fifth,in the context of labor migration,provincial technological evolution differentiation mechanism,which is an important embodiment of labor and capital element allocation,is the focus of this chapter.Based on regional and periodical panel fixed effects model and generalized least squares model,empirical research shows that entering closed period of demographic dividend,the new phenomenon of reduced labor supply accelerates marginal output factors of capital diminishing,capital productivity sharply falling and labor productivity slowing down.And labor supply gap of updating has delayed capital-labor substitution,avoided capital productivity declining in the high speed economic growth,and accelerated labor productivity rising.Labor migration contributes TFP rise by labor and capital technical efficiency.Outflow labor boosts labor productivity,but it is not enough to compensate for decline in capital productivity,which ultimately leads to a significant decline in outflow province TFP.Labor factors supply of labor migration leads serious consequences of provincial differentiation of industry TFP.Sixth,based on the analysis of the mechanism of labor provincial migration and dynamic mechanism of factors change,this paper reveals provincial differentiation mechanism of economic characteristics.The origin of provincial differentiation of industrial output and per capita output lies in labor migration,capital input and allocation.Although the growth rate of per output of living standards is significantly slower than total output in inflow provinces,inflow of labor significantly accelerates per output and output rising.Although there are elements of diminishing marginal output,the decline of total output and per output elasticity is very small and avoid economic output and per output growth economy shrinking,finally accelerate economic growth.However,with the demographic dividend window shutting,labor migration has inhibited industrial output and per output rising and marginal output of factors has decreased.The two together have lead to economic downturn,resulting in provincial economic differentiation.In the end,based on the fixed effect model and periodical and regional panel threshold model,In the context of labor migration and provincial differentiation,this paper analyzes the mechanism of labor backflow and allocation of provincial factors.Compared with labor outflow,when wage gap is about less than 3120 yuan,the workers will choose spontaneously into low-income areas,showing significant return characteristics.Comparing with outflow provinces,return migration of industrial labor is not only leading to the inflow of labor factors,but also significantly accelerates the rate of capital returns and promotes accumulation of capital labors.Therefore,the backflow of labor is an effective way to reverse the dilemma of capital and labor factors loss and promote accumulation and agglomeration of factors.