A Study Of Population Health Management Methods Based On Reliablity Theories

Nowadays,China has been facing the increasingly complex health risk factors,which poses a great threat to people’s health.At the same time,the medical resource in China is relatively insufficient.Therefore,health management has become one of an important way to solve this problem.With the development of big data and other technologies,data and information will become important bases for health management,which gives the opportunity to use science management for health management.However,at present,there is not a systematic report on health management which from the perspective of science management.The reliability theory is an important part of science management,which focus on condition monitoring,maintenance strategy,fault diagnosis,prediction etc.From the logical reasoning process and the relationship between variables of the research problem,the research content of traditional reliability theories has a high degree of similarity with the problem of population health management,for example,population health risk assessment and control,disease screening strategy design and optimization,population residual life prediction etc.In addition,most of the current health management uses physiological and medical data,while the use of daily behavior data is still inadequate.Therefore,based on the reliability theory,this thesis poses and constructs a population health management process system which mainly uses the daily behavior data.This study enriched the theoretical basis of health management,promoted the development of health management,which has important value of application in improving population health conditions,optimizing the allocation of medical resources,and making rational and efficient use of limited medical and health resources,etc.The researches in this paper including the following methods from the early stage to the late stage of population health management procedure system:(1)The evaluation and control of population health risk based on control chart theoryThe primary task of health management is to evaluate and control health risks.However,at present,in China,there are still deficiencies in the research on the dynamic warning response mechanism of health risk in our daily behavior.In this study,we use the control chart to construct a method for health risk assessment and control.This method can adjust the monitoring variables and related control lines according to the characters of health data and risks,which help to evaluate and control the health risk of daily life for a long time and carry out dynamic early warning and response.Through evaluation and control suggestions,health management works should be arranged on different groups of people based on different health risks to alleviate the pressure of limited resources for population health management in China.Taking smoking as an example,this research shows that different community populations face different situations of tobacco control,so government should mainly promote no-smoking activities and related diseases examinations and treatment to those populations with higher risk behaviors rate.(2)The design and optimization of disease screening strategy based on delay-time theoryAfter assessing and controlling the health risks of the population,it is necessary to carry out corresponding medical services.This requires a targeted disease screening strategy.However,the current disease screening strategy design and optimization model generally ignores the situation of delayed diagnosis.This will lead to conservative screening strategies,making the disease more likely to develop and worsen,and ultimately exacerbating the adverse effects of disease on health.In this paper,we use the delay time theory to construct a screening strategy design and optimization method for a specific disease.Compared with the previous methods of disease screening strategy design and optimization,the proposed method takes account delayed diagnosis in providing decision recommendations.Take breast cancer as example,the results in this paper show that the screening plan proposed by the delay-time-based model has earlier start age and shorter screening interval than the currently used breast cancer screening strategy.(3)The residual life prediction of human beings based on stochastic filtering theoryAfter disease screening,it is necessary to carry out comprehensive health management with the detection,analysis and evaluation of comprehensive health status as the core,which needs to be guided by the prediction of the remaining life span of the population.However,at present,the life expectancy prediction model of population generally does not use historical data and the prediction results are not fine.This paper proposes a residual life prediction method that uses the daily living information based on stochastic filtering theory.Compared with the life prediction method and life table currently used,this method is a dynamic recursive process which can update the prediction with using the latest data so that the prediction becomes more and more accurate.The results of comparative analysis using the population over 55 years old in China show that tire prediction results based on stochastic filtering theory have less error than the previous methods.This is not only conducive to promoting comprehensive health management which guided by the prediction of the residual life expectancy of the population,but also can help to cope with the persistent growth of the elderly population and the difficult situation of health management of the elderly in ChinaAccording to the three core health management methods above,besides,based on the reliability theory,this paper constructs a complete population health management guidance theory system,which includes the population health risk assessment and control in early stage,the design and optimization of the disease screening strategy in middle stage,and the population residual life prediction in later stage,then finally accomplished the trinity guidance of "knowing-doing-outcome".