| China is a water-scarce country,and at present,“the strictest water resources management system” is being publicly implemented.Its main goal is to control and manage the total amount of water used(including water used for agriculture),and one of its specific aims is to reduce agricultural water consumption while ensuring the normal development of agriculture.Attempting to reduce agricultural water consumption,domestic practices have made great progress in developing water-saving irrigation methods,optimizing crop distributions,adjusting agricultural structures,and developing trade in agricultural products(virtual water),but its water-saving effectiveness needs to be verified.In this paper,the practical performance of the agricultural water-saving is analyzed by using the conventional statistical analysis method and the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Over the past 20 years,saving irrigation agriculture in China has developed rapidly,which has not only promoted the increase of agricultural production and the increase of farmers' income,but also produced a huge agricultural water-saving effect.Water-saving irrigation measures such as sprinkler irrigation,micro-irrigation,low-pressure pipe irrigation and canal seepage control have saved a lot of water heretofore used in agricultural production to varying degrees.However,there is still a structural deviation in the development of saving irrigation agriculture.The development of water-saving irrigation systems that are connected to the water supply grid has seen sufficient progress,but the development of water-saving irrigation in fields,especially in large fields(as compared with facility agriculture)is insufficient.(2)Over the past 20 years,the distribution of agricultural production in China has seen constant change.To reflect and measure how well crop production distribution matches the prevalence of water resources,the new concept of “correspondence between spatial crop distribution and the prevalence of water resources” and the new index of “concentration of high-water-consumption crops in areas with a high prevalence of water resources” are applied.The results of the calculations for three kinds of high-water-consumption crops(rice,vegetables,and wheat)showed that the correspondence between the rice production distribution and the prevalence of water resources is more than 80%,meaning it makes good use of the advantages of prevalent water resources(precipitation)in China and the spatial distribution of water-saving rice production is basically formed,and the spatial layout of water-saving vegetable production is not prominent.The correspondence between the vegetable production distribution and the prevalence of water resources is only 60%,which indicates sub-optimal usage of the advantages of prevalent water resources(precipitation)in China.The correspondence between the production distribution of wheat,which is suitable for bright and hot areas,and the prevalence of water resources is about 85%,and indicates good usage of the advantages of prevalent water resources and the spatial layout of water-saving wheat production was basically formed.(3)Over the past 20 years,several aspects of the agricultural production structure of China have been adjusting and changing,including the start of promoting agricultural water saving and an increase in the consumption of agricultural water resources.The planting area and proportion of vegetables crops with high water consumption have been greatly increased,resulting in huge negative effects of water saving.The consumption of agricultural water resources has increased.The structure of water-saving agricultural production has not yet formed a clear outline.(4)In the past 20 years,the import of virtual water in soybeans into China has saved a lot of agricultural production water,but the export of virtual water in crops and vegetables with high water consumption is not consistent with the overall goal of agricultural water saving.The international trade pattern of water-saving agricultural products(virtual water)is not clear.(5)A sensitivity analysis shows that water-saving irrigation,especially water-saving field irrigation(sprinkler irrigation and micro-irrigation),is sensitive to agricultural water saving.There is a strong correlation between other factors(agricultural layout and structural adjustment,as well as virtual water international trade of agricultural products)and agricultural water saving.The core factors affecting the development performance of saving irrigation agriculture are the fragmentation of farmland management rights and the atomization of agricultural organization structure,resulting in a common phenomenon of “small-scale diseconomy”.As a result,a large number of advanced agricultural production technologies,including water-saving irrigation,cannot be popularized and applied,which seriously reduces the performance of resource utilization,including water-saving irrigation.The internal reason why the distribution of crops and the structure of agricultural production deviate from the conditions of water resources prevalence and the goal of agricultural water saving is that the development and application of agricultural technology and the improvement of transportation conditions reorganizes the internal organizational structure of agriculture.It strengthens the profit-seeking competition between the domestic regions and crop varieties.This,coupled with the failure of industrial regulation,finally leads to the industrial anomaly that the distribution and production structure of crops deviates from the conditions of water resource prevalence and the goal of agricultural water saving.The reason why the international trade of agricultural products(virtual water)deviates from the goal of agricultural water saving is that the dynamic orientation of the comparative advantage of international trade of agricultural products is deviant,and the internal function of the comparative disadvantage of water resource prevalence is ignored.Strategic suggestions to improve the performance of agricultural water-saving methods:(1)To guide the development of modern “large-scale and specialized” family farms,and to create basic scale conditions for the promotion of water-saving irrigation in fields.As stable farmland contract rights,we should give all kinds of large operators comprehensive long-term management rights and interests in the future,cultivate the long-term drive of farmers to adopt water-saving irrigation technology,and give appropriate water-saving subsidies to farmers in view of the positive externalities of water-saving.In this experiment,the agricultural water right allows farmers to “collect surplus water” for market-oriented circulation,and the incentive mechanism of residual claim for agricultural water saving is created.(2)To further concentrate the spatial distribution of rice production in the dominant areas of water resource prevalence(precipitation)in the south of China,and to improve the correspondence between the rice production distribution and the prevalence of water resources;Implement the strategy of “moving north vegetables southward” for some vegetable varieties(vegetables suitable for growing in and long-distance transportation from the south),and further concentrate the vegetable production distribution to those areas in the South where water resources(precipitation)are most prevalent.Improve the correspondence between the vegetable production distribution and the prevalence of water resources meanwhile secure vegetable supply.Wheat production was further concentrated in areas with a relatively dominant prevalence of water resources(precipitation of 500-800mm),and as a result,the correspondence between wheat production distribution and the prevalence of water resources has improved.(3)Reduce the planting area of vegetables and corn,especially in Shandong,Henan and Hebei provinces,and refer to the experience of “changing rice to drought” and “seasonal fallow of winter wheat” in Hebei Province.Try out the system of “vegetable change to x”(x stands for any kind of low-water-consumption crop)and “seasonal fallow of vegetable land”(reducing the multiple planting index of vegetable land).(4)Appropriately increase the virtual water import of raw agricultural products,save the domestic production water use for this kind of agricultural products,reduce the virtual water export of high water consumption crops such as vegetables,and eliminate the negative effect of virtual water export in agricultural products. |
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