Ecosystem Services Value And Its Influence Mechanism In Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei Region Based On LUCC

Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region is one of the three important growth poles of China's economy,the relationship between man and land is tense,and the overload of resources and environment is prominent at present.Through field investigation,spatial analysis in ArcGIS,simulation of scenarios in different rooms,multivariate statistical analysis and geographically weighted regression,etc.,the thesis analysed regional landscape pattern and land use conversion,assessed the value of ecological service in the region,and analysed its spatial distribution,comprehensive zoning and spatiotemporal heterogeneity,simulated the change of ecosystem services value under different scenarios,and explored the natural and socio-economic influence mechanism of ecosystem services value,in order to provide a basis for the planning and management of land use landscape and the establishment of ecosystem services value maintenance strategies.The research results suggested that,(1)Landscapes in the regions were mainly cultivated land,woodland and grassland,the changes of cultivated land,grassland,wetland,unused land and construction land mainly occurred from 1990 to 2000.The distribution of natural and artificial or seminatural-semiartificial landscapes was relatively clear.Woodland and grassland,were mainly distributed in the northwest area,while cultivated land and construction land,were mainly in the southeast of the region.Landscapes typically changed to semiartificial and artificial landscapes from 1990 to 2010 and to artificial landscapes from 2000 to 2010;thus,the effect of disturbance on landscape transformation should not be ignored.Beijing had the fastest change in land use from 1990 to 2000,while the land use change was the fastest in Tianjin from 2000 to 2010.The index of land use degree in Tianjin was the highest,and Beijing was the lowest.(2)The net primary productivity of the region in 2010 was 77.75TgC/a,and its range varied from 0 to 1334.20gC/m2a,with an average of 361.31g/m2a,the maximum appeared in Beijing.The water conservation capacity in the region was 10 billion 543 million m3/a,Soil retention was 14 billion 739.55 million t/a.The ecosystem services value was 263 billion 576 million yuan/a in 2010 estimated by the substitution market methods.The important value of the region was soil conservation value,followed by gas regulation value and material cycling value,and the contribution of water conservation value was the smallest.In 1990,2000 and 2010,the value of ecological service estimated by benefit transfer methods were 201.115,213.21 and 211.192 billion yuan/a,respectively.The sum proportion of regulating services value and supporting services value was more than 80%.The value of soil formation and protection,biodiversity conservation and water conservation in the region was relatively large.The contribution rate of forest ecosystem to ecological service value was the largest,followed by farmland and grassland ecosystems.The distribution of total ecosystem services value was the most scattered,cultural service value was the most concentrated,and ecosystem services value per unit area was nearest to the normal distribution.The mapping of individual service value and comprehensive zoning all showed a significant step structure.There were 67.66%units of the region,which belonged to strong carrying capacity zone,the carrying capacity of the ecosystem services value was not optimistic forpopulation growth and economic sustainable development.(3)The total ecosystem services value showed a trend of aggregation from 1990 to 2010.High value clustering units were mainly in the northwest,while the low value clustering units were mainly located in the southeast.The degree of aggregation based on the area ratio was the greatest,while the degree of aggregation based on GDP ratio was the least,EB standardization can eliminate some space abnormity units.Except for cultural service value,the shift direction of the other three services value were similar from 1990 to 2010.The shift direction of the gravity center of rural population and primary industry added value was similar,while other social and economic gravity centers had their own characteristics.The offset distance of the gravity center of regulating services,the total value of ecological services and the three industrial added values were far for more than 20 years.The coupling of the gravity center between total ecological services value and urban population,tertiary industry added value,secondary industry was higher.Change consistency had changed between the gravity center of the total value of ecological service and some social and economic since 2000.The ecosystem services value of the region would fall by 110.41 and 1012.44 million yuan per year under scenario 1 and scenario 3,respectively,whereas the value would increase 811.68 million thousand yuan per year under scenario 2.The ecosystem service value in the future was expected to increase 1 billion 977.82 million yuan in 2030.In 2015,scenario 1 was the best,followed by scenario 4,and scenario 2 was the worst.(4)Temperature and precipitation were the main natural influence factors of ecological service value,followed by humidity,and the influence of wind was the least.Annual temperature range,minimum annual precipitation,the days of daily precipitation over 0.1mm,in particular,the last factor had an obvious positive effect on the ecological service value.The positive and negative effects of relative humidity on it were coexisting,and the negative effect was the main effect.It was obvious that the spatial distribution characteristics of the four natural factors local influence mechanism.The primary industry related factors were the main socio-economic factors of the ecological service value,while factors such as the second industry,the third industry,the fiscal revenue and so on,had little effect on it.The comprehensive factor of primary industry had a negative effect on the ecological service value.The negative effect of the total population factor was weaker than the comprehensive factor of the primary industry;however,the effect of the simplification factor on the primary industry was positive or negative.The local influence model can better solve the spatial non-stationarity of the dependent variables and the independent variables,and the local influence model was better than the global influence model.