| The global financial crisis of 2008 has made serious impact on China's national economy, and further exposed the problems of China's extensive mode of economic development. In order to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure, and realize the conversion of economic development mode in China, CPC and State Council made strategic planning to cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries. Driven by market demand and industrial policies, strategic emerging industries flourish in all provinces, with rising status, improving quality, and growing significance as engines driving economic development. Strategic emerging industries have already acquired preliminary achievements. However, there are still some misconceptions in the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries. For example, some areas believe that the development of strategic emerging industries is to abandon traditional industries and establish new industries. And some places do not choose strategic emerging industries based on their traditional industries and blindly launch emerging industrial projects. These unrealistic practices lead to a new round of homogeneity in regional industrial structure and vicious competition. Therefore, along with cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries,it is necessary to properly handle the relationship between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries, integrating them organically into a joint force and realizing the ideal situation where they are effectively adapted, mutually promoted and coordinatedly developed.The dissertation sorts out relevant studies at home and abroad and reasonably defines strategic emerging industries and traditional industries. With industrial correlation and industrial coupling as the starting point, it studies the coordination and upgrading of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries through systemic theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Specifically, based on analysing the roles,interaction, and evolution of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries and guided by the latest "2012 national input-output table," the dissertation adopts the input-output model to calculate the level of correlation between China's strategic emerging industries and traditional industries from the view of industrial correlation,and find out the strategic emerging industries that possess strong driving force and the traditional industries that are highly correlated with strategic emerging industries. Using the coupling degree model and coordination degree model, taking the data of all provinces except Tibet from 2004 to 2013 as samples, it calculates the coupling level and coordination level of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries from the view of industrial coupling, and studies the patterns of temporal variation and spatial distribution. Comprehensively considering the factors influencing the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries, it adopts the panel data model and spatial panel data model to conduct empirical analyses of the factors, which verify the specific effect of each factor on coordinated development.Generalizing all the empirical analyses,the dissertation proposes measures to promote coordinated development of China's strategic emerging industries and traditional industries. The main appoaches and conclusions are as follows.(1)The roles, interaction,and evolution of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries are analyzed. The status of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries in China's national economy is as follows. Strategic emerging industries are an important breakthrough in the transformation of economic growth pattern and an important engine driving economic growth. Their development helpsChina take the initiative in international economic competition and occupy the commanding height in future market. Traditional industries, which provide life necessities and work for people, ensure the integrity of industrial system and sustain rapid economic growth, are the pillar of current Chinese economy. So thetransformation and upgrading of traditional industries is the key and difficult point inthe adjustment of industrial structure in China. The interaction between strategicemerging industries and traditional industries is reflected in two aspects. With soil,ingredients and demand, traditional industries provide basic support for strategic emerging industries; through technological diffusion and industrial chain embedding,strategic emerging industries provide driving force for the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. The interaction between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries can be divided into three patten, namely, industrial correlation,industrial coupling and industrial industrial convergence. The interaction between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries can be divided into three phases,namely, disordered competition stage, mutual promotion stage, and substitution and fusion stage.(2) The correlation effect of China's strategic emerging industries and traditional industries is calculated. The consumption coefficient of strategic emerging industries by traditional industries is low in quantity. Among all the seven strategic emerging industries,the consumption coefficient of new energy,new materials and high-end equipment manufacturing industry by traditional industries is high, the consumption coefficient of the new generation of information technology, biology, energy conservation and environmental protection, new energy automotive industry is low, and the penetration of strategic emerging industries into traditional industries is still unremarkable. Of the top 30 industrial sectors with the highest influence coefficient,strategic emerging industrial sectors account for 60%, which means that strategic emerging industries play a significant role in boosting other industries. Industrial sectors of high influence coefficient are mainly concentrated in the new generation of information technology industry. Traditional industrial sectors that have high direct consumption of strategic emerging industrial sectors include "health," "cultural and office machinery," "air transportation," "professional services," "road transportation"and so on. China should speed up the development of these traditional industries, which are highly correlated with strategic emerging industries, so as to realize win-win result of both types of industries.(3) The coupling coordination between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries is estimated and analyzed. On the whole, the level of coupling coordination between China's strategic emerging industries and traditional industries is not high, still staying in the stage of moderate coordination. The D value of coordination level rised from 0.341 in 2004 to 0.424 in 2013. Although there is a remarkable rising tendency in the level of coupling coordination, the increase amplitude is placid, which means that the two types of industries have not yet entered the stage of high coordination and there is still large space for promotion. In spatial distribution, there has been a "high in the east, low in the west" pattern in the level of coupling coordination from 2004 to 2013.Eastern China experiences the highest coordination level, far above the average of China, and has first entered high coordination stage since 2011. The level of central,western and northeast areas is relatively lower than that of the eastern area, and is still at moderate coordination stage. The reason for low coordination level in most provinces is that the development of strategic emergent industries still lags behind traditional industries.(4) The factors that influence the coordinated development of China's strategic emerging industries and traditional industries are systematically analyzed. The factors are mainly material capital, human capital, technological innovation, service industry,opening-up, infrastructure, policy support. In terms of the effect on the coordination of the two types of industries, the estimated influence coefficients of physical capital,human capital, technological innovation, service industry, and infrastructure are positive.Significance tests of different degrees reveal that the influence of these factors on the coupling of the two types of industries is positive and promote their coordinated development. The estimated coefficient of opening-up is negative, which means that it exerts inhibiting influence on coordination. The estimated coefficient of policy support is positive, but only significant under the 10% level, which indicates that policy support has not yet exerted significant influence on enhancing the coupling coordination of the two kinds of industries. It can be seen from the empirical results of spatial econometrics that there is an obvious spatial correlation among China's provinces (cities, districts) in terms of the coupling between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries.(5)Suggestions are proposed on promoting the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries. Suggestions on promoting the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries areas follows. Planning the development of strategic emerging industries on the basis of traditional industries, promoting the interaction between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries multi-dimensionally, making full use of the new generation of information technology to improve the industrial structure, developing the service industry vigoriously to provide support for industrial transformation and upgrading,promoting clusters development of correlated industries. Suggestions on improving thelevel of coordination between strategic emerging industries and traditional indutries areas follows. Eliminating backward production capacity of traditional industries to be jointed to strategic emerging industries, setting up industrial innovation system and improving the overall level of technical innovation, strengthening cultivation of professional technical personnel,optimizing infrastructure construction, deepening opening-up and coopertaion, improving policy environment and optimizing institutional environment of industrial development. |
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