Monitoring And Early Warning Of Agricultural Bank Of China's Financial Risk

The financial crisis caused by the US subprime crisis in 2008 attracts the attention of the safety of financial system.This crisis is caused by the financial institutions at first,which made people aware of the importance of the financial regulation.Since reform and open,the reform of commercial bank in China is progressive,it opens its door to the outside,strengthens the supervision of financial safety,and improves the quality of service.While we should notice that the financial regulatory system in China leaves much to be desired compare with development countries,especially in the risk evaluation of commercial bank.What we discussed above demands the further study of the monitoring and early-warning in financial risk of commercial bank that could provide the basis of supervision.The aim of this article is study on the financial risk of commercial bank in China and constructs the monitoring and early-warning model which could evaluate and forecast the financial risk of commercial bank scientifically.At first,the article sums up and makes a comment about the relevant theory and literature,and construct the logical framework.Secondly,the article compares with the financial regulatory systems of developed countries,and analyzes the current financial risk's situation of Agricultural bank of China,which could be the basis of the construction of monitoring and early-warning index system of financial risk.Thirdly,the article constructs the monitoring and early-warning index system of commercial bank's financial risk.Fourthly,the article constructs the evaluation model of commercial bank's financial risk with the factor analysis,which could monitor and evaluate the financial risk of commercial bank.Fifthly,the article constructs the early-warning model of commercial bank's financial risk with the BP neural network,which could forecast the financial risk of commercial bank.At the end,the article summarizes its opinions and gives some suggestions.This article reach a conclusion as follows:(1)The article constructs the monitoring and early-warning index system of commercial bank's financial risk,it contain seven indexes in level one which are about macroeconomic risk,capital risk,business risk,credit risk,liquidity risk,operating risk and market risk.(2)The article constructs the evaluation model of commercial bank's financial risk with factor analysis,which could classify the financial risk of agricultural bank of China and evaluate the financial risk of agricultural bank of China annually.(3)The article constructs the early-warning model of commercial bank's financial risk with BP neural network,which conducts the data from 1999 to 2007 as the training samples,and conducts the data of 2008 as the testing samples,the result display the model with BP neural network could forecast the financial risk of commercial bank accurately.(4)The article design the financial risk early warning system of Agricultural Bank of China through the use of web database technology,which constructs the financial risk assessment model and early warning mechanism that could analyses,monitors and early warns the financial risk of Agricultural Bank of China,the early warning system could enhance the financial risk resistance capacity,guards against and defuses the financial risk and achieves the standard,systemic and scientific financial risk management.