| The extensive economic growth mode brings economic growth and the deterioration of the environment to us. Haze, acid rain, climate change and other environmental problems’ frequently appear has brought damage to human health and threat to the production and development of human beings. Therefore, how to maintain economic growth,environment protection and the health of residents assurance at the same time,is an important problem to be solved by the government of each country. The concept of low carbon economy occurred correspondingly which has drawn more and more attention of the international community.As is known to all,China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest economy in 2010.At the same time,China has become the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and environmental pollution power. That’s why development of low-carbon economy and improving the health of the people and the realization of economic, environmental and health’s sustainable development of our country is particularly urgent and important. Then how will the development of low carbon economy impact the health of residents?Answer to this question will not only help us to have a more clear understanding of the importance of the development of low carbon economy, but also be helpful to identify the development model our low carbon economy should follow. This study can not only provide the guidance of theoretical guidance for the practice of China’s low-carbon economic development, but also provide reference for the government to formulate corresponding economic, environmental and health related policies and measures. That’s why this research has strong theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of previous studies, using related theories of health economics, environmental economics, public economics and econometrics, combining normative and empirical, macro and micro, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis method, we explored health effects of development of low carbon economy and further research of the status of coordination and optimization strategy. On this basis,the development model of low carbon economy was brought. This research mainly answers the following questions:What is the relationship between low carbon economy and residents of health? Why there is such a relationship between low carbon economy and the health of residents? How much does the low carbon economy influence the health of residents? How about the relationship between low carbon economy and health? Is it harmonious? What kind of development model should low carbon economy follow in order to better promote health? In order to achieve this goal, the following analysis is carried out in this dissertation:Firstly, based on full analysis of the connotation of low carbon economy and health, using the general definition of low carbon economy and health, the LOWA operator method were used to screen indexes to construct low carbon economic evaluation index system and the inhabitants health evaluation index system. Using combination weighting method based on factor analysis method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weights of each index and taking the corresponding index data from 2000 to 2013 to obtain low carbon economic composite index and health composite index as China’s low carbon economy and residents health status. Then co-integration model, error correction model and Granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between China’s low carbon economy and residents’health.Secondly, mechanism theory of health effects of low carbon economy is analysed from three aspects of the mechanism, path analysis, and the theoretical model.(l)The transmission mechanism of the health impact of low carbon economy is explained in three ways from the economic factors, environmental factors and lifestyle; (2)Path analysis is done from the main four channels of greenhouse gases and other pollutant sources:the electric power industry, energy, transportation, household food and agricultural production; (3) Based on the existing health production function especially based on health production function of Grossman (1972) to create Cobb Douglas model as the analysis model.Thirdly, the residents’health effects of low carbon economy is analyzed. The low carbon economy is divided into three aspects:economic factor, environmental factor and life style. Firstly, from the two angles of economic factors and environmental factors, panel data at the national level and time series data at city level were selected to analyze the residents’health macro effect and micro effect of low carbon economy.At the same time, the environmental pollution, economic growth impact on the health of residents are considered. Secondly, the impact of lifestyle on health can not be reflected in the model of health effects due to the data is difficult to obtain. So we use self-made "low carbon life and health relationship" questionnaire survey to instead.Fourthly, whether the relationship between low carbon economy and health is harmonious or the state of the "economy-environment-health" three system is coordinated is studied. Fuzzy membership function is used to get the coordination state of "economy-environment-health" system; Then, multi-objective optimization is done to coordinate"economy-environment-health" system development and the calculated values and target values were analyzed and compared.In this dissertation, our study found that since year of 2000, China’s low carbon economic development level and the level of health show a rising trend. And there exists cointegration relationship in a long-term stable relationship and short term fluctuations between the two. Low carbon economy has promotion to health which will emerge after a certain lag. Low carbon economy affect health through economic factors, environmental factors and lifestyle. No matter how representative indicators are selected, no matter what level of data are chosen, low carbon economy macro and micro residents health effects research found that of economic growth and good environment are conducive to the improvement in the health.And low carbon lifestyle can promote the improvement of the health status of community residents. As for low carbon economy and health coordination state, we found during years from 2000 to 2013, coordination state is improved among China’s economy, environment, health.But the state is still in the "weak coordination" stage and hasn’t obtain the necessary state for sustainable development systematic relationship.So there is a long distance to coordination state. Multi-objective optimization results show that the industrial structure, carbon emission, green level and other indicators are key indicators of the impact of EEH system coordination.Finally, we come to the conclusion that the low-carbon economic development mode should based on the coordinated development of the "economy-environment-health" system, and should be the multi-objective composite system and an organic whole which contains "economy-environment-health".So low-carbon economy’s decision should not only from the economic angle or environmental point of view to get a unilateral decision. Therefore, low-carbon economy development mode is proposed in this dissertation from the system theory angle, namely system of integrated economic security system, environmental protection system, social security system and safeguard system. We should co-ordinate the planning, decision-making, taking into account the economic growth, environmental protection and health promotion at the same time in order to achieve sustainable development.The innovation of this dissertation is from the perspective of the development of residents’health to study low carbon economy. And the multi-objective programming model of "economy environment health" system coordinated development is established for the first time to put forward the systematic low-carbon economic development model based on the coordinated development of "economy environment and health "and on the multi-objective optimization,which will enrich the theoretical system of the development of low carbon economy.Theoretical analysis of mechanism of the health impact of low carbon economy will provide a theoretical basis for the relevant study.The construction of low carbon economy evaluation index system and health evaluation index system will obtain more robust results than the single index and comprehensive evaluation model.Using the combination weighting method can effectively avoid the defects of the subjective weighting method and the objective weighting method. In empirical analysis, instead of traditional way of thinking from air pollution and health effects of acute and chronic effects,we study systematical analysis from the perspective of the residents macro health effect and micro health effect which will enrich the quantitative analysis of health effects of low carbon economy and improve the situation dominated by qualitative research. What’s more,the multi-layer data analysis makes up for the one-sided conclusion of the single data to improve the robustness. |
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