The Research And Effectiveness Evalution Of One Missile Wepeon System And Its Application

For modern complicated missile weapon system,the single static index could not be used to reflect the comprehensive ability of weapon system synthetically.Applying combat operation effectiveness of missile weapon system as the evaluation index was the trend in future.Therefore,it was very necessary to search for a sort of scientific effectiveness evaluation method.Missile weapon system effectiveness research was concerned deeply by research department and combat operation department.In this paper,basing on a certain version missile,a series of problems about combat operation effectiveness evaluation of missile weapon system,such as prelaunch survivability,target capture capability,radar detection probability,penetration probability,warhead damage effectiveness,et al.,were researched.Firstly,merits and shortcomings of domestic and international various effectiveness evaluation methods were analyzed.According to the combat mission profile of missile weapon system,probability matrix method was put forward which was based on systems engineering and misty mathematics in order to evaluate the combat operation effectiveness of missile weapon system.Compared with other evaluation methods,this method could be adapted to a wider scope,and it is more practical.Effectiveness evaluation of missile weapon system was divided into three research stages: prelaunch,postlaunch and impact damage,meanwhile,its integrated research frame and route were set up.First stage,prelaunch survivability was taken as a research object in prelaunch effectiveness evaluation.Mathematical model which was based on the misty comprehensive estimation method was set up to evaluate the prelaunch survivability of a certain version missile.According to the characteristics of a certain version missile weapon system,quantitative analysis of prelaunch survivability evaluation which was divided into 5 grades and 11 factors was carried out.The research results indicated that prelaunch survivability of a certain version missile was superior.Second stage,target capture probability,radar detection probability and penetration probability were taken as research objects in postlaunch effectiveness evaluation.Mathematical model basing on statistics theory was set up to analyze target dynamic capture probability of a certain version missile during simulating the physical process of missile target capture.Target capture probability arithmetic was put forward to analyze the effects of the design index,such as radar azimuth scan range,self-guided distance,range selection,gate range,et al.,on target capture probability,and the standpoint that various factors should be considered comprehensively during figuring out gate range was pointed out.Mathematical model was set up to evaluate a certain version missile radar detection probability in conditions of considering the influence of ground clutter,sea clutter and weather.Critical pitch angle method and radar system characteristic constant were applied simultaneously in the model,then radar range equations were transformed the form which was easy to be solved to resolve the problem of a certain version missile radar detection probability calculation under the condition of lacking some radar parameters.Above-mentioned model was applied to simulate and analyze the effects of the design index and operating factors respectively,such as radar cross section(RCS),flight altitude,ground clutter,terrain feature sheltering,et al.,on missile radar detection probability.Third stage,warhead damage effectiveness was taken as research objects in impact damage effectiveness evaluation.Mathematical models concerning penetration warhead and blast-fragmentation warhead were set up respectively to evaluate the damage effectiveness of missile to typical target.Basing on the analysis of target vulnerability,typical target was simplified equivalently.Basing on the method of establishing the functional relationship between lethality probability density and blast damage envelope,mathematical model which was applied to evaluate the penetration warhead damage effectiveness was set up under the condition of simplifying command center as construction target equivalently.Considering comprehensively the blast fragmentation damage and blast wave damage of blast-fragmentation warhead to target,mathematical model which was applied to evaluate blast-fragmentation warhead damage effectiveness was set up under the condition of simplifying ground-to-air missile position vehicles as target boards of different thickness equivalently.Abovementioned two warhead damage effectiveness models of a certain version missile were applied to simulate and analyze the effects of the technical index,such as missile attack angle,the rationality of trigger adaptive fuze and trigger time-delay fuze,terminal flight altitude control accuracy,missile pitch angle,missile impact accuracy(CEP),et al.,on missile target damage probability.At last,the model of missile weapon system effectiveness evaluation which was set up in this paper was used to evaluate the effectiveness of a certain version missile weapon system by the means of synthetical simulation.The validity of evaluation methods was demonstrated and many applicable research conclusions in engineering were obtained.