Study On Water Resources Security In Beijing Area

Along with the rapid population and industrial growth,water,a basic necessity for human survival and development,has been becoming growingly important.Relevant studies show that global water usage has increased by six times over the last century,and over one billion people in the world are suffering from water shortage,along with 2.6 billion people without safe water.Beijing is now facing increasingly tough situation in the process of turning into a cosmopolitan,largely due to sharp population growth.In fact,Beijing's water resources per capita is only 94 cubic meters,far below the international level of severe water shortage,namely,1000 cubic meters.Thus,finding a solution to the water shortage problem is an urgent task,because it constrains Beijing's sustainable development of economy,society and environment.Specially,Beijing's the water resources and water safety possess the following features: 1)its water shortage and water safety are reversible,following the process of evolution;2)if its water safety issues are resolved,Beijing's water shortage and safety can be gradually reversed;3)if water safety issues into water resources disaster,it cannot be reversed.Water safety issues can be studied in the sustainable development framework,which considers the role of the resources and environment.This study employs the PSR framework that can examine the main factors in water safety and delineate the impact of one factor or that of combined factors,thus revealing the internal mechanism and evolutionary laws of the water resources safety system.Based on the PSR analysis,this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index of water resources safety and its related warning index,with the model of water resources safety comprehensive evaluation and warning indexes.Water safety evaluation and early warning is the premise and base when government is enacting water resources regulations and making water safety decisions.Water safety evaluation of regional water resources analyzes the security state of a particular region.Programs and measures can be conducted to deal with water safety problems in accordance with the evaluation results.Water safety warning is the water status to predict.It can propose countermeasures based on forecast results,evaluation and prediction.This provides theoretical support for sustainable development of water resources,public safety management and water resources crisis management in Beijing.It can also reduce the waste of resources and achieve sustainable development in Beijing.The technique route as follows: Firstly,theories of water resources safety are studied.At the same time,main factors and risk sources that would have influence on water safety are systematically analyzed in terms of full analysis of water resources security situation,status of water resources security assessment and early warning and regional water resources development and utilization.Secondly,according to the actual situation in Beijing,it establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system and relative safety evaluation criteria of water resources security.Furthermore,it analyzes and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of existing water resources safety assessment methods and predictive models,which it builds on rough sets-neural network evaluation model of water resources security in Beijing and particle swarm-support vector machine forecasting model water safety in Beijing.Finally,it conducts empirical analysis on the evaluation model and the prediction model,then proposes water security emergency mechanism and safeguard measures according to the results of assessment and prediction.As current studies of water recourses security evaluation are most qualitative-based,based on a comprehensive analysis of water security research results at home and abroad,this article establishes Beijing regional water security evaluation criteria and obtain rough set of core indicators,rough set neural-BP network security evaluation model of water resources.Water resources and the security situation in the Beijing area are analyzed.At the same time,it also established particle swarm-SVM prediction model of water safety,using the model to forecast the water resources security situation in Beijing from 2018 to 2020.Finally,according to the results of the evaluation and prediction,it combined with the water crisis management theory,the theory of sustainable development,public safety and water resources management and proposes security measures and recommendations of Beijing area.In this paper,the research results are:1.Analyzing and defining the related concept of water resources securityFirstly,correlation analysis of involved water resources safety problems and water problems is conducted.The occurrence of water security problems,both at home and abroad,show that renewable water resources can also be used up completely.The crisis of water resource has already threatened the basic production and living of human survival.Unprecedented attention and focus should be given on water security problem.Then,in this paper,the problem of water resource security and its essence is discussed.To transfer the problem of water resource into the problem of water security required the following two steps: 1)the problem of water resource has already post huge potential or existing threats to human survival;2)various potential or existing threat or danger generated by water resource problems has been considered public security problem by the society.Combing the particular situation in Beijing,analysis is given in the paper.Then water security and its connotation are redefined,the extensionality of water resources and water resources security system features are also explained.In order to further illustrate the water resources and the social economic relations,it puts forward the water security economic analysis and the analysis of PSR framework.Finally,three stages of water crisis management,the prevention,control and regulation,are discussed respectively.2.Water security risk factors identificationBased on the analysis of water resources security status in Beijing,this paper develops by analyzing the concerned economy,ecology,resource and population systems as the main influencing factors of water security in Beijing.It is assumed that disaster-resisting function,the rate of water resources development and utilization,the degree of social and economic development,government policies and measures,citizen's knowledge level are major factors affecting the safety of water resources in Beijing.Then risk factors identification method is used to define the risk factor involved in Beijing area water resources system.In this paper,the hydrological risk factor,risk factors and technical risk factor,risk factors of water supply,water consumption risk factors are applied to analysis and research Beijing water resources status.This method identifies the main factors that influence the safety of water resources in Beijing.In this article,the change of precipitation is studied through the uncertain relationship between the precipitation and frequency;the precipitation situation can be analyzed from the uncertain relationship between precipitation and runoff;the water resource safety influence is revealed by the uncertain relationship between flow and frequency;the damage that generated by water safety issue is explained by the uncertainty of the water shortage and loss.On this basis,water resources security risk factors model diagram of Beijing area is set up.Finally,based on the example given,specific identification method is illustrated in order to lay a foundation of the definition of water safety factors on the next step.3.Comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources securityFirst,this article expounds the general condition of water resources in Beijing.It uses Beijing area distribution of water resources,water resources supply and demand contradictions,the shortage of water resources and the pollution problem in Beijing,and the coordinated development of water resources in Beijing and the relationship between the sustainable development of water resources in Beijing to induct and analyze the regional water security state system.Second,it uses the water resources carrying relationship between compressive strength and the sustainable degree of efficiency of water use,water resources,water resources management system problems,water resources scarcity and external relationship to review and summarize the water pressure in Beijing area.It also argues the situation of water resources security response in Beijing on the dimension of number development,quality coordination and reservation maintain.Finally,based on the above analysis,we build comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources security based on the theory of the state-pressure-response.4.Construction and analysis of rough set-BP neural network Water Safety Evaluation ModelFirstly,the geographical location,socio-economic,hydrological meteorology,hydrology and water resources development of Beijing are described.Secondly natural factors and human factors of Beijing water resources security issues are discussed.Then the reasons of Beijing water resources security issues are describes systematically.On the basis of these descriptions,the evaluation index system of water resources in Beijing is established.As too many factors are involved in the Beijing water resources security system,rough index system is applied to obtain core indicators.This model improves the calculation efficiency and later comprehensive appraisal effect to a great extend.In this paper,rough set-get consistent results water safety evaluation model of neural network is used to evaluate the 2012-2014 state Water Resources Security in Beijing and the result is in accordance with the controlled safety status that get by this paper.This reveals that the model has some practical value and application value in the evaluation of water safety in Beijing.5.Putting forward the basic thought of water security early warning,indexes and operational mechanismFirst,the article utilizes the basic concept of water security early warning and warning content related analysis,and then,it uses water source safety early warning mechanism involved in the search,analysis and prediction to determine the water resources security early warning indicators,establish security early warning index system of water resources in Beijing,and further proposes the evolvement water resources security early warning in Beijing area.6.Construction and analysis of water resources security SVM-rough sets forecasting modelFirst,on the basis of Beijing water resource security warning index system,the article uses index system to give the core indicators.Then,support vector machine is used to do the warning of water security in Beijing regression model,which uses particle swarm optimization parameters.The model is used in water resources security situation prediction in Beijing,from 2018 to 2020.Forecast results are basically in safety.We can see that from 2018 to 2020 water resources security state improved gradually.Thus,particle swarm-SVM prediction model for water safety in Beijing in the next period of time is analyzed to obtain a forecast in line with expectations of the various policies.It can be developed as a basis for policy relevant government departments.It can also provide a reference for foreign talent into Beijing.Overall,particle swarm-SVM water safety prediction model has a certain practicality,science and rationality.7.Beijing water resources security adviceAccording to the result of Beijing area water resources safety comprehensive evaluation and early warning,combined with Beijing area sustainable development,public security management and crisis of water resource management actual situation,efforts are needed in the following areas in order to ensure the safety of water resources: 1)improve water pollution control planning,strict control of rural pollution,strengthen water pollution monitoring and regulation by market means to control water pollution;2)improve industrial water conservation,urban domestic water,agricultural water saving,water saving and water saving landscape to create ways to promote water-saving city construction;3)make use of industrial innovation to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure;4)strengthen the legislation of water resources security;5)increase the outgoing water diversion ability,increase the ability of recycling the reclaimed water;6)develop water-saving technology,improve the utilization efficiency of water resources;7)construction of tradable water rights system;8)adjust the price of water,gradually establish a reasonable water price system;9)reform the management system,implementation of integrated water resources management;10)establish water security early warning and emergency mechanism.8.Suggestions for the improvement of the water crisis management system in BeijingGiven the crisis of water resource management problems and deficiencies in Beijing area,combined with the countermeasures and suggestions of crisis management of water resource,we put forward the following suggestions on water crisis management mechanism for Beijing area: 1)develop water resources situation early warning system that is suitable for Beijing,realize live dynamic monitoring,implement the beforehand monitoring and control of water crisis,the government should fully launch the masses to participate in the management of water resources,to assist governments to find and solve the problem,the government actively organize to simulate the water environment problems and exercises,improve the awareness of unexpected development of the general public and crisis consciousness;2)set up Beijing's water crisis emergency response agencies,improve the water resources crisis emergency response organization,guarantee the efficient and orderly organization for the conduct of emergency water resources crisis,when sudden water crisis happens,handle the disposal according to related emergency plans in time,it builds things control mode;3)in the Beijing area after the crisis of water resources situation of basic control,the government fully tap water crisis event,extensive propaganda and education.It can change the crisis as an opportunity to people crisis consciousness be strengthened,and government departments to water crisis management into the daily management of water resources crisis management organizations need to function clear,flexible operation,it also need to develop all kinds of water crisis emergency plans and alternatives,when the crisis occurs,we have to do a good job of adequate preparation.