Research On Two Dimentional Linguistic Information Based On Evidential Reasoning And It’s Application In Scientific Foundation Project Selection

With the devolvement of science&technology as well as the development of economic society, the decision-making problems in daily life are increasingly complex. In view of the status quo, it has become a common way of solving complex decision-making problem that utilizing experts’knowledge and experience. As one of the major decision-making methods, the evidence theory provides a way of thinking based on experts’knowledge and experience. However, the classical evidence theory is required to be modeled on one-dimensional frame of discernment, which cannot capture the characteristics of decision-making process by using evidence, knowledge and experience of experts, and these characteristics would be of significant influence in the quality of decision-making opinions synthesis. Similarly, the classical linguistic decisions express decision-making information often by one-dimensional linguistic label, which fails to make clear the quality of the information provided by experts. Therefore, how to add one dimension of information to amend the original linguistic information has become of theoretical and practical significance for the development of evidence theory, especially in using expert information more accurately and effectively and improving the quality of the complex linguistic decision-making.Based on the above, two-dimensional linguistic information is taken as the main line, and the multi-dimensional framework of evidential reasoning as the main tool in this paper. According to the different forms of two-dimensional linguistic information, the basic two-dimensional linguistic information evidential reasoning method, multi-granularity two-dimension linguistic information evidential reasoning method, and Judgment matrix based on two-dimension linguistic information are proposed respectively. For the purpose of test and verification, this paper make use of the method in the context of the evaluation of peer review performance in National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and builds Science Foundation project evaluation methods based on two-dimension linguistic information. The main content and research results are as follows:1. A new interval evidential reasoning methods. First of all, this paper compares the pros and cons and application scope of different operators of ER, including the original ER algorithm, fuzzy ER algorithm and interval ER algorithm. In order to solve current problems of interval ER algorithm, such as dissatisfaction of commutative law and computational complexity, we propose a new interval ER operator based on C-OWA. In the method, a point belief operator is constructed to transfer the interval belief to a point belief. Moreover, the validity of the interval belief and the risk attitude of decision maker can be estimated by the proposed operator. And then, the interval belief can be aggregated by the basic evidential reasoning (ER) operator.2. ER method based on two-dimension linguistic information. On the basis of the systematic literature review of classic linguistic decision-making methods, we propose ER method based on two-dimension linguistic information in order to solve the problem which fails to make clear the quality of the information provided by decision-makers. To elaborate the method, based on the concept of two-dimension linguistic information, this paper firstly analyzes the relationship between two-dimension linguistic information and the information under multi-dimensional discernment frame. After that, the representational rules of two-dimension linguistic information are defined, and the aggregation method of it based on ER is given in this paper. In the aggregation method, we probe in the expert weighting approach and structure a group decision method based on two-dimension linguistic information.3. ER method based on multi-granularity two-dimension linguistic information. Firstly, we analyze the concept of multi-dimensional discernment framework; divide the relationship between different discernment frame into parallel pattern, progressive pattern, and mix pattern based on its logic. Then, we elaborate the concepts of discernment frames’ simple equivalent relationship, probability equivalence, etc. Secondly, with regard to the characteristics of elements in discernment frame, the frameworks are categorized into exact linguistic frameworks, fuzzy linguistic frameworks and etc. in order to illustrate the features of these frameworks. Under each category, we put forward a method of consistent transformation between different discernment frames and discuss the properties of the method. Thirdly, two-dimension linguistic information is divided into fuzzy and accurate categories according to its fuzziness. We analyze the relationship between linguistic information of multi-granularity and of different discernment frameworks, and then give the consistent transformation approach among two-dimension fuzzy linguistic information of different granularity as well as accurate information of different granularity respectively. Finally, the various two-dimension linguistic information of disparate granularity are aggregated by ER algorithm or interval ER algorithm based on C-OWA operator.4. Judgment matrix based on two-dimension linguistic information. With the purpose of displaying the reliability or uncertainty of information, the linguistic judgment matrix is developed into the two-dimension linguistic judgment matrix by adding one linguistic dimension to represent the uncertainty. According to the connotation of the new matrix, we find that the two-dimension linguistic judgment matrix can be expressed as belief comparison matrix. Based on the analysis of the concept, property, as well as the definition of consistent transformation, the aggregation approach of multiple belief comparison matrices has been concluded. And then the approach of solving the priority vector of belief comparison matrix is provided through transforming belief comparison matrix into weighted geometric average matrix. Finally, on the basis of the relationship between linguistic judgment matrix and belief comparison matrix, the definition of consistent transformation, the aggregation approaches, as well as the priority method are all analogized to the two-dimension linguistic judgment matrix. 5. Study on evaluation method of peer review in NSFC based on two-dimension linguistic information. In the context of NSFC peer review, this paper apply the methods mentioned above in the performance evaluation of NSFC peer review by making use of the two-dimension linguistic judgment:information of experts’judgment to each application as well as their familiarity with its research subject from NSFC. Then, according to the actual result of peer review (grant or not), empirical study is conducted, and the advantages of our methods are revealed by the comparison with current methods in NSFC.