The Analysis Of Macroeconomic Effects On China's Tariff System, The Innovation Research On The Tariff Collection And Management System

As an important source of the state's financial income and macro-control means, tariffs play an important role in safeguarding China's international payments balance, protecting domestic industry development, controlling the import and export trade, and regulating trade deficit. Being an important component of the policy, the contribution to the revenue and macroeconomic regulation and control effects of the tariff policy had been paid more and more attention by governments. China's customs tariff and foreign trade are closely related to macro-economic development. The coordination of China's foreign trade development with the entire national economy adapted to the developments and changes in the international trade. It has been an important research topic in the research on deepening revenue policy, modeling the dependence on indicators for economic and trade relations by econometric method, evaluating China's customs revenue's contribution to the macroeconomic development.The dissertation is divided into seven chapters. The first part includes an introduction to the research background and significance, a brief review and analysis on China's tariffs theory, and an introduction of the dissertation structure.The second chapter is the theoretical foundation of the full text. This section summarizes the effect of the macro-tariff theory, theory of effective protection, the protection of infant industries, as well as the optimal tariff theory. A literature review is made on the general equilibrium and partial equilibrium theory, the Customs revenue for the association between macroeconomic indicators, foreign trade and fiscal revenue in foreign currency exchange rates.The third chapter of the dissertation is the analysis on the relationship between China's tariff policy and macroeconomic. We make a comprehensive analysis on the China's tariff reforms and macroeconomic trends, the impact of tariff reform on China's macroeconomic, the impact on the fiscal policy, the monetary policy, the tax policy, the import and export policies and the impact on the fiscal balance. This part is the foreshadowing and basis for the theoretical modeling in the later part.Chapter four is the thesis for customs revenue among the measures and macroeconomic analysis. It is our empirical research on customs revenues and macroeconomic indicators with econometric model. We apply the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL) to model customs revenue and the gross domestic product and national fiscal revenue modeling, do analysis and measurement on the customs revenue with macroeconomic indicators and to test its forecast results. At the same time, with the classical statistical theory we analyses the dependence in customs , foreign currency exchange rates and income tax revenue, establishing cointegration equation between the three variables, revealing the intrinsic relationship between customs revenue and macroeconomic indicators. The quantitative prediction methods for the analysis of mutual linkage effects provide us the basis and support for improvement and adjustment of China's tariff structure, formulating policies tariffs in statistics.Chapter five is the analysis of the tariff policy on the import and export trade. This chapter expounded the theory summarized tariff policy on the import and export trade. We use vector autoregressive model to make model on the import and export trade volume, total imports and total exports, the fiscal revenue and foreign exchange. We make tests on the model of reliability and stability by the coefficient significant test and the eigenvalue relationship with the unit circle. We analyses the long-run equilibrium with the impulse response function between the variable import and export trade and economic relations. It has important practical significance with the quantitative analysis to develop reasonable tariff system, expand exports and level the trade surplus, and promote international balance of payments for us.Chapter six is innovative research on the establishment of a modern customs system of tax collection. We make a review on the status of China's tariff collection and pointed out that the customs revenue collection and management of the existing problems at first. Then with the basic objectives and principles of reform of the collection and management system we proposed the implementation of the collection and management system and other modern innovations, which including tax collection and management functions to achieve the methods and collection operations, tariff collection and management technology innovation, and establish and improve quality management of revenue.In Chapter seven we proposed the principles of tariff reform, formulating the general objective for tariff policy reform and promoting the specific recommendations for the tariffs reform. Based on theoretical analysis and review tariffs the dissertation analyses the relationship tariffs with macroeconomic. We analyses the dependence with the econometric model on the revenue and related economic indicators, the customs taxes and import and export trade between the indicators to reveal the inherent economic laws. We made a summary assessment on China's customs revenue's contribution to macroeconomic developments and the innovative research with empirical analysis of China's tariff system of collection and management. The major contributions and the conclusions of the dissertation include:1. By theoretical analysis and literature review on tariffs, we analyses the theory of the existing tariffs and tariff policy, and noted that different tariffs theory have guiding significance on the different tariff policy.2. We made a comprehensive analysis on the present stage of China's reform and macroeconomic development tariffs, tariff reform and the impact on China's macroeconomic, fiscal policy implications, and the impact of monetary policy, tax policy and the import and export policies, tariff concessions on the impact of fiscal balance. The analysis showed that after China's accession to the WTO the major economic indicators and the reduction of tariff levels increase.3. We made ADF unit root test, cointegration relationship testing and the cointegration equations on the customs revenue, tax revenue and foreign exchange rate sequence and the empirical results showed that the revenue has a facilitating role for the tax. The empirical results and out of samples forecast tests showed that the effect of customs revenue forecast for fiscal revenue is better than for GDP.4. When analyzing the dependence between the import and export trade on the macroeconomic indicators, we applied the vector autoregressive model for total imports and exports, fiscal revenue and the exchange rate. Empirical results indicate that the import and export trade and fiscal revenue has positive association. Exchange rate and import trade have the positive dependence, which means import volume increased with the appreciation of the RMB, vice versa. The consistent between the empirical research and the actual situation provides us a reliable quantitative basis in the theoretical analysis, which also provides us a theoretical reference for China's adjustment on the tariff policy in order to control the trade surplus reasonable.5. We made a innovation research on modern customs revenue collection system. By analyzing the current situation of China's tariff collection, we pointed out some problems on the customs revenue collection and management. we proposed the implementation of the collection and management system and other modern innovations, which including tax collection and management functions to achieve the methods and collection operations, tariff collection and management technology innovation, and establish and improve quality management of revenue.6. We proposed the principle of tariff policy reforms and the overall goal for China's tariff policies and the reform of the system of specific recommendations, including: (1) Establish a complete legal system revenue; (2) Establish and improve the system of tax collection and management operations; (3) Improve the classification of goods, the origin of goods valuation and tax breaks as the main content tariff technical means. The completeness of Customs tax collection and management system would have a direct impact on the overall effectiveness of the tariff policy. China should gradually establish a tariff governance research for the pilot to the principle of risk management, for the collection and management of enterprise units, to get harmony with the market economy of collection and management mechanism, in order to collect all the Customs taxes.In future work, we should strengthen exchanges in the international economic and trade statistics measuring and cooperate with major trading partners in the fields of statistics, learning from foreign advanced theories, technologies and methods to further improve and perfect China's Customs Administration. We should learn from foreign advanced technology and ideas to enhance international quantitative risk management awareness and management standards, and achieve the customs management clever and clear.When we applied econometric method to customs revenue and export trade analysis, it will be good for the research reasonable on China's tariff system, facilitate the customs tariff policy implementation in national regulatory body, and also ensure us to control China's trade surplus with reasonable and the international balance of payments, and provides us a reliable quantitative basis for timely making targeted macro economic adjustment. We should exchanges with major trading partners in the field of international economic and trade measures statistics and strengthen the cooperation in the field of statistical measurement, learning from foreign advanced theories, technologies and methods to improve and refine our Customs measures statistical analysis methods, to improve management standards and the promote customs of China's foreign trade development services.