China's Oil Security Warning And Countermeasures

In recent years, along with the sustained and rapid development of China's national economy, oil consumption has increased year by year and oil consume growth rate is far greater than the growth rate of its produce. The growing imbalance between supply and demand has become the settled problem in our country. To meet the needs of China's economic development, the rate of outward oil dependency is increasing gradually, at the same time, frequent fluctuations of international oil prices and increasing gap between supply and demand makes national oil security risk coefficient is increasing. Oil security has become a threat to the national economic security and national security. Therefore, the oil security has become our unavoidable realistic problem.Aiming at the international and domestic situation faced by China petroleum security, the purpose of this study is to establish petroleum security monitoring and pre-warning indicator system on the basis of bran-new petroleum security theory, doing applied research to the petroleum security pre-warning system, and then put forward strategies and suggestions about China's petroleum security, establishes and improves China's petroleum security pre-warning mechanisms, and provided a theoretical basis and decision-making for protecting the nation's petroleum security and safeguarding national economic safe operation.This paper studies from the following aspects: First, this paper explored the related concepts of oil security warning system, constructing the theoretical foundation and framework of this paper. Second, from the aspects of World oil and gas resources, World oil and gas's supply and demand, international market oil price and international oil politics, this paper gives a comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the main international factors, influencing China's oil security.Through above analysis, it presents the opportunity and challenge which China's oil security is faced with in the international situation. Third, from the aspects of resources trend, supply and demand situation, imports conditions and operations environments of oil & gas, this paper gives a comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the main domestic factors, influencing China's oil security. Through above analysis, it presents the problems which China's oil security is faced with. Fourth, in front of the analytical study based on the actual situation in China, this paper put forward the research ideas and constructive principles of oil security warning system , and on the basis of what, it built China petroleum security monitoring and pre-warning indicator system from the perspective of operable. Fifth, On the basis of China's petroleum security warning indicator system, this part used the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and artificial neural network (ANN) to do an exploratory work for the security pre-warning system. Finally, on the basis of summing up above 5 parts, this part provided strategies and recommendations of China's petroleum pre-security.The innovative Points of this paper are mainly as follows: First, it proposes a new theory of petroleum security pre-warning. It redefines the meaning of China's petroleum security from three perspectives of quantity safety, Price safety and use safety, discussing the oil safety standards; then, it gives the definition of petroleum security pre-warning and brings forward its steps, constructing a new and comprehensive framework for China's petroleum security system; Second, in the face of an ever-changing situation, based on the new vision of China's actual conditions, this paper proposes the principles to build petroleum security pre-warning indicator system, and constructs the system from the way of resources, supply and demand, import and market. It recognizes all levels indicators pre-warning limits and divides the security status and security levels by the recognized limits, determining the evaluation criteria of indicator system; third, on the basis of pre-warning indicator system, this paper did an exploratory work for China's petroleum security warning, it makes a comprehensive evaluation on China's oil security warning, established monitoring and pre-warning methods and models and presented demonstration analysis and applications; Then based on the characteristics of oil security warning, neural networks was used for the pre-warning. It designed Bp neural networks models, using which established China Petroleum security warning system. The establishment of China Petroleum BP neural network is a new attempt on the petroleum pre-warning methods, and provides a new research ideas and measures for China's petroleum security pre-warning.