System Analysis And Countermeasures Study On The Development Of Agricultural Mechanization In Heilongjiang Province

In recent years, as the process of global economic integration accelerating,how to solve the issues of agriculture, farmers and rural area become the concern focus for the party and state, the content of seven central No.1 document on agriculture mechanization is increasing and richer from 2004 to 2010, the status and role of agricultural mechanization in "three rural" is increasingly strengthened.Heilongjiang Province is a major agriculture province, which is the largest major agricultural production region and China's largest commodity grain base, the level of agricultural comprehensive productivity and mechanization are in the forefront of the country, but compared with developed countries, the overall level is still at the intermediate stage of agricultural mechanization. Therefore, actively promoting agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province is a necessary requirement to consolidate and strengthen agriculture foundation status, and to achieve agricultural modernization in the new historical conditions. In order to speed up the process of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, the demands of using scientific management theory and technology of agricultural mechanization in actual agricultural production is becoming more and more pressing, which not only plays an important factor in agricultural mechanization development, but also directly affects economic efficiency and social benefits using agricultural machinery.Therefore, in the new situation, it is very important and necessary to use system engineering, computer technology and other modern data processing methods to enhance the research on quantitative analysis method for agricultural mechanization management, to scientifically and reasonably solute problems encountered in agricultural mechanization management, and to promote decision-making modernization and scientific in agriculture mechanization management. In this paper, the development of agricultural mechanization was systematic studied in Heilongjiang Province, which has extremely important significant for scientific and accurate grasping the development level of agricultural mechanization,the main influence factors, the future development trends and development goals of agricultural mechanization, putting forward the countermeasures, promoting the sound and rapid development of agricultural mechanization, strengthening foundation state of agriculture, achieving coordinated development of economic and prosperity in the rural economy. Major research works are as follows: (1) In order to thoroughly and systematically study the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, according to the historical development data of agricultural mechanization, combined with field investigated conditions by agricultural machinery authority in Heilongjiang Province, the development process, the basic situation, the favorable condition, and the main problems of agricultural mechanization were analyzed.(2) In order to scientific evaluate the development level of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, On the basis of analyzing the existence research finding of agricultural mechanization and taking into consideration the actual development situation in Heilongjiang province, against to the high request of farming to irrigation and plant protection, the original evaluation indicators of comprehensive protection ability of agricultural mechanization can only reflect the total changes of agricultural machinery,but can't reflect the match conditions of agricultural machinery, the evaluation of agricultural machinery employees can only reflect the quality of personnel, but can't reflect the number changes of personnel, the improved evaluation index system of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province was researched.(3) Standard values and weights of various indexes were determined by expert investigation method and referring to literature. The development level of agricultural mechanization was measured by comprehensive assessment method from 2001 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province, and then the change of the development level of agricultural mechanization and the reasons of hampering agricultural mechanization were analyzed in Heilongjiang Province. The development level of agricultural mechanization was evaluated using statistics data in 2008 in various regions of Heilongjiang Province, and the evaluation results were analyzed and compared, which provided a scientific basis for guiding the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province.(4) To identify and prospect the development environment of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province.First, the development environment of agricultural mechanization was identified;second, Social and economic environment factors, agricultural production resource factors, agricultural equipment and technical factors influencing the development of agricultural mechanization were selected. Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province, grey comprehensive correlation analysis model was established, the main factors influencing the development of agricultural mechanization were determined in Heilongjiang Province;third, by the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, some environmental factors closely related to the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were predicted and prospected;fourth, the future development environment of agricultural mechanization was analyzed.(5) In view of the development of agricultural mechanization has complicated non-linear characteristics, whose developmental changes have dual trend of growth and fluctuation in Heilongjiang Province, and has a higher require to the fitting method. Through conducting the research on gray prediction method, regression analysis, BP neural network and genetic algorithm and so on, the combined prediction method based on BP neural network, the improved GM(1,1)model based on genetic algorithm, error correction model based on BP neural network and other new methods were proposed, and the development trend of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province was predicted.(6) The development of agricultural mechanization needs environment support, at the same time, the development of environment is promoted by agricultural mechanization. In order to explore the interaction internal laws between environment and agricultural mechanization, the relationship models between regional economy, agricultural economy and agricultural mechanization were determined; and then, according to the future development situation of the gross domestic production growth and the gross farming production, the demand of agricultural mechanization for economic growth was determined through the relationship models between the growth of economic and agricultural mechanization.(7) According to the prediction results of the development goals of agricultural mechanization and the demands forecast of agricultural mechanization for economic development, and compared with advanced development level of agricultural mechanization in domestic and foreign, the final development objectives values of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were ascertained; using qualitative and quantitative methods, the feasibility of realizing development goals was analyzed in terms of the growth of economic strength, the requirements of financial investment for mechanization, the amount of government finance investment, the state subsidies policy, agricultural mechanization service organizations, the process of industrial and urban, the development of agricultural machinery industry and so on.(8) The development emphases and countermeasures of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were proposed. Considering in favor of increasing the farmers'income, the higher investment returns, the relatively weak links in agricultural mechanization, protection environment and so on, and then combined with the large agricultural development strategy in Heilongjiang Province, the development emphases of agricultural mechanization were proposed; according to the development emphases of agricultural mechanization and the main factors affecting the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, the development countermeasures were proposed, which provided references for decision-making and programs-planning for the relevant government administrative departments.