A Study On The Volatility Of Oil Price

The purpose of this paper is to explain practical practice about oil price with particular theories. The whole logic system is as follows:firstly, we abstract the basic way of analyzing the fluctuation of the oil price through studying the facts that affect the oil price; secondly, we construct functions of oil supply and demand on the basis of theories such as market structure theory, expectation theory and dynamic optimization of enterprise's profits theory. We use these functions to study the quality of supply and demand of world oil and the specialty of world oil market; thirdly, as the result of our researching method, we reach a conclusion which can enlarge the model that attempt to explain the fluctuation of world oil price; finally, we can use our results to explain the change and development of world oil price.Having been guided by the upper logic, we divide the article into seven chapters.Chapter one:Preface. In this part we discuss the research background, that is to say the theoretic and realistic significance of this subject, the difficulty and complexity of the problems, and the research method we take and conclusions we make.Chapter two:Introduction. We introduce and assess main theories in terms of oil price. We also take initial analysis and summary of the facts that affect the oil price, then put forward the structure arrangement and innovation of this paper.Chapter three:Analysis. We study and analyze the relationship between oil price and oil supply and demand, in addition to the impact of oil price, supply and demand which is made by substitute resources, expectations and so forth.Chapter four:Modeling. We build a model of oil price fluctuation which can be used in monopolistic market and try to find the rule of oil price change in the non-equilibrium market. We mainly focus on the general quality of the elasticity of the oil supply and demand function as well as the game equilibrium of the monopolistically competitive market.Chapter five:Data analysis. We discuss and analyze the historical data of oil price and study the methods in the process of performing and predicting oil data. Chapter six:Summarization. We will summarize certain conclusions through studying the fluctuation of the oil price. We also give explanations and descriptions of the fluctuated trend of oil price.Chapter seven:Appendix. This part contains the detailed theory of oil price fluctuation model and data used in the model.