Study On Hospital System Planning

1. Research PurposesTo evaluate residents demand for medical services and the demand of hospital resources (beds) to provide the services. Analyze the allocative efficiency of 342 cities' hospital services and resources to identify criteria of allocating the health resources.2. Research MethodsThe study used mathematical statistical methods, health economics methods, economic methods to analyzed the residents' medical service demand and hospital system planning.3. Research ResultsAccording to the logic frame of this study, the findings include the following three aspects:3.1 The measurement of Chinese residents demand for medical servicesThe study established model of evaluating the medical services demand based on population age structure. Research result suggested the Chinese residents' demand for inpatient services will appear the first peak in 2030, the annual number of inpatients will be 180 million, and then entered a period of slow growth for about 10 years, in 2050, the inpatient number will reach its peak, it will be about 200 million.3.2 The measurement of the hospital resources demandOn the basis of evaluation residents'demand for medical services, the prediction of the bed occupancy rate and average length of stay, the study calculated the demand for hospital beds of next few decades. It was found that the first peak of hospital beds demand will appear in 2030, which is about 6.2 million, the highest peak will reach about 6.7 million in 2050.3.3 Hospital resources allocation modelAccording to DEA, the study suggested the appropriate ratio between hospital medical workers, the number of equipment units, business house area and hospital beds are 0.95:1, 0.56:1 and 62.12:1 respectively. This is a reference for allocating hospital resources.4. Policy RecommendationBased on the forecasting of demand for residents' medical services and hospital resources, the study put forward suggestions on the planning of hospital system. First, we should pay attention to analyze the factors affecting residents' demand for medical services, use a comprehensive methods to forecast the demand of residents' medical services and hospital resources, control and allocate hospital beds and manpower by rational planning, making comprehensive policies to provide medical services to meet the growth of residents' demand.5. InnovationFirst, the study explored the establishment of basic standard resource allocation model of inpatient services. This model got a good forecast results by avoiding the big variety of outpatient and emergency services' affection. Second is more concise and easy model to inpatient services demand forecasting model. Third is giving a optimal allocation ratio about hospital care resources.