Study On Response Mechanism Of Inland River Maritime Accidents Risk Catastrophe To Seafarer-Ship-Environment Disadjust

With the rapid development of water transport economy in "Twelfth Five-year Plan", the coordination contradiction between sustained economic growth and inland river waterway transportation security environment have become increasingly prominent. Inland river waterway transportation development depends on good navigation condition and convenient intelligent supervision and management. The probability of inland river maritime accident increase with increase of ship flow^projects under or above water increase activity,irregular increase of extreme weather by global climate change anomaly. The possible damage to inland river maritime accident intensify with the increase of dangerous goods transport capacity and volume. The possibility of risk catastrophe increases.Inland river networks cover densely.And the hydrological and meteorological conditions vary enormously. The large-scale trend of inland river ships is obvious. The demand of ship flow and density become more and more severe. Ship airworthiness performance and the perfection of ship equipment of navigation have big difference.Wreck accident by waterway transportation of mineral powder and enhydrite begin to be gradually attention. And the study on human factors became the hot spot because of the importance in maritime accident reason analysis. The effects of all the factors above bring an unprecedented pressure to maritime supervise. The study on response mechanism of risk catastrophe of maritime accident to navigation influence factors disadjust can improve the early warning and anticipatingcontrol ability at emergency. And the study has important significance to adapt to the water transport traffic safety needs and ensure the orderly of water transportation environment. The purpose of the paper is the design of response mechanism research program. The content of the paper include the following several aspects:1. The study on inland river maritime accident scene analysisThe study on inland river maritime accident scene analysis is based on inland river water traffic accident investigation report. Through analysis of inlandriver maritime accident scene, nodes that influence accident development can be identificated and the key factors that drive the maritime accident scene can be analysised. Scene logic can be expounded by the evolution of time and space during the whole maritime accident. And the corresponding scene content can be analysised. When scene analysis reachs a consensus, the drive action of maritime accident can be determined by the evolution of the influence factors in the scene based on the change of time and space. And the final scene probability comes into being. The future trends can be conjectured.2. The study on quantitative index system of inland river maritime accident influence factorsThe quantitative of disadjust factors can be quantize expressed by the evolution of the influence factors based on the change of time and space. The expression can reflect the influence degree between the current single Seafarer-Ship-Environment factor action or multifactor coupling action and possible maritime accidents. The process of the quantification is based on the probability of some kind of maritime accident occurrence when navigation influence factors (disadjust factors) happen. And the improved quantitative index system can be established when ship scale concept,maritime accident samples expansion and data fusion between subjective expert judgment and objective statistical analysis are added.3. Catastrophe theory modeling and analysisRisk catastrophe is always the sign of maritime accidents occurrence to inland river maritime accident. Catastrophe theory determines catastrophe model structure by the number of control variables dimensions and State variables dimensions. And the catastrophe model can be solved and the topology changes can be done. Then the bifurcate set can be obtained and the critical control variables of potential function catastrophe can be analysised. When navigation influence disadjust factor or their function, as the input control variables, come into the unstable region of catastrophe model, maritime accidents risk catastrophe occurrence. When system control variables come into the bifurcate set critical regions, accidents catastrophe risk comes into some urgency. When the control variables can be adjusted and escape far from bifurcate set, accidents risk catastrophe will be avoid. The method can be used in the study on inland river maritime accidents risk catastrophe. Maritime supervise department can understand maritime accidents risk and the risk catastrophe at the same time. By this way, the ability of maritime accident security safeguard will be upgraded.4. The response mechanism program design of "accidents risk catastrophe" to "navigation influence factors disadjust"The study on response mechanism is a frontierissues with foresight and important academic value. In the same condition of Seafarer-Ship-Environment system disadjust factors, ship security entropy and system chaos degree can be calculated firstly, then maritime accident risk catastrophe model can be built, at last catastrophe progression method can be used to comprehensive evaluation. The velues of disadjust factors quantification, as the calculation basis of system chaos degree, can build the catastrophe model when they play the role of the control variables or their function. In the condition of catastrophe model risk catastrophe, the relevance between system chaos degree and catastrophe progression method comprehensive evaluation can be contrasted, pressing area of change trend consistent within them can be deduced. And the response mechanism of "accidents risk catastrophe" to "navigation influence factors disadjust" can be exposited finally.The study of this paper is based on maritime accident scene analysis and navigation influence factors quantitative values. And Catastrophe theory is used as the means for the study on the response mechanism program design of "accidents risk catastrophe" to "navigation influence factors disadjust". By this means, some initial results have been obtained. The achievements of this program can provide theoretical basis for inland river sudden maritime warning and anticipatingcontrol. And can also provide decision support for maritime security safeguard.