Study On Risk Assessment Theory And Methods On Urban Rail Transit Network Operation

Safety is the lifeline of urban rail transit and eternal theme. With the rapid development of the rail transit in our domestic city, the operating mileage and the scale of network increases ceaselessly, and network effect is markedly increased, so that the rail transportation has entered the era of network operation. The demand of urban rail transit network operation for risk management has evolved from" post hoc analysis type, passive type" to " Beforehand prevention type, active type" stage, that mean from experience management to the modern system safety risk management stage, because of urban rail transit network operation involving personnel, facilities, environment, management and so on, risk sources are increasing day by day, and the form of risk is more and more complicated, the requirement of safety management is at higher level. In recent years, the rail transit operation accidents happened frequently, explaining that our domenstic city track traffic operation safety situation is not optimistic, and safe operation has become the social focus and hot point. Therefore, the research on the impact of urban rail transit network operation safety risk factors, mechanism, development and evolution law, strengthening the rail transit network operation safety risk assessment study contributes to control the safety state comprehensively, accurately and dynamically, in order to find out better develop effective control and management strategy, which makes it under control, and ensures the city track traffic operation safety and reliability of operation, prevents and reduces accidents, reducing accidents caused casualties and property losses, has very important significance and application value. The research work of this thesis is mainly the following aspects:1. Analyzing the urban rail network operation characteristics and study the passenger flow propagation laws in emergencyAnalyze rail transit network operation characteristics, such as network size, network connection, and network cross, network amplification effect. Through analyzing of the passenger flow forms in Japan, Korea, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities, obtain the network passenger flow growth law. According to the Beijing network traffic statistics analysis, obtains the network passenger flow by time, spatial distribution and emergency conditions network passenger flow propagation mechanism and propagation.2. Analyzing occurrence rules of accidents and cause mechanization of risk factors, then build the operational accident cause ISM model.Through the analyzing of the accidents in our country and abroad, explores the occurrence rules of operation accidents, such as accident types, reasons and regularity of distribution by time, space, delay, and accident grades. By analyzing the anthropic factor, facility factor, environment factor, management factor that effect operation safety, and then find out the inherent relations among each cause mechanizations. Based on these, use ISM to analyze the inherent relations and laws among each factor, and find out the structure hierarchical level and the direct, remote and deep influencing factors.3. Build a single factor multi-attribute security risk evaluation model based on six sigma theory for urban rail transit.According to the complex, nonlinear, fuzzy and so on characteristics of security-risk factors that affect the urban rail transit's operation, and according to different attributes of the risk factors, we divide the attributes that reflect the risk factor's characteristics into dynamic and static risk factors, and build the safety risk assessment model which is the combination of dynamic and states. Based on six sigma theory, formula of Euclid's distance, combinatorial coordinates method, we also build a single factor multi-attribute security risk evaluation model based on six sigma theory for urban rail transit. The empirical analysis shows that the model can get a more objective, precise and comprehensive evaluate result that reflects the security risk level of urban rail transit's overall safety risk level.4. Build a multifactor and comprehensive urban rail transit network operation model of risk assessment based on extension theory.We divide the impact of urban rail transit network operation safety risk factors that affect the network operation of urban rail transit into five broad areas:network safety factors, human factor, equipment and facilities factors, environment factors and management factors, so we build a scientific and reasonable network operation security risk evaluation indices. Besides, this paper combines extension theory, analytic hierarchy process, entropy method and other methods, building a multifactor with comprehensive safety assessment model of urban rail transit network operation based on extension theory. This model can respectively evaluate the whole system, local system or single factor index, and judge its security state and make corresponding effective control measures according to security state. And the last, making the Beijing Subway Operation Company as the example, this paper carry out the demonstration on the models and theories'effectiveness, accuracy, reliability, maneuverability.