Road Operation Safety Risk Analysis Based On Data Mining

The risk analysis for highway safety operation is a new study area of highway traffic safety management. The current analysis methods mostly discuss the management system or analyze regularity of the regularity in the macroscopic level using the statistic method, lacking the advanced intelligent quantitative method. Since August 2006 the submitting system of national highway traffic blocking information issued by ministry of transport of the people's republic of China, each provincial highway network center have accumulated a lot of regional network traffic blocking information. By data mining theory and technology how to use history highway operation data, analyze the highway safety operation of the interference various reasons and find the inner rules of highway safety operation management, can provide decision support for making a scientific safety countermeasures of our country highway safety operation, which is important practical significance to enhance our country's highway traffic safety control ability.On the basis of analyzing the domestic and overseas research and application status of data mining technology, traffic safety theory and its combined method, as well as under the background of practice and application in the national science and technology support project of application demonstration of national highway safety and service technology development and engineering, a number of key technologies of highway safety operation risk analysis method based on data mining are studied by this paper through using multi-disciplinary knowledge and cross-application integration.Firstly, the paper studies the multi- source information integration method for highway safety operation risk management based on data mining, and introduces data source, data characteristics and composing elements, and puts forward a risk data warehouse conceptual modeling method of highway operation based on ontology, according to the subject-dimensions-category way which divided the user demand into multiple topics, each topic described by several dimensions characterizations and each dimension divided into a variety of categories by expanding the new BWW component ontology. Through the method we can make formal definitions and visual descriptions for the relationships among the topics, dimensions and categories in order to accomplish specific highway operation safety risk analysis.secondly, with risk factors as the research core, the paper proposes a highway safety operation risk factor assessment method using improved risk index evaluation method based on Summing up the highway traffic block reasons, and builds up a highway safety operation risk evaluation index system with dynamic classification of the probability and the severity, in order to realize he quantitative evaluations of the regional network dynamic risk factors and the comprehensive risk assessment of highway operation safety. Then, with risk events as the research core, the paper proposes a highway traffic block hierarchy method based on fuzzy clustering and a risk reasons analysis method for highway safety operation based on fuzzy association rules on the basis of mining the distribution of the highway blocking event, the highway blocking time and the highway blocking area, which realize the accurate division of highway safety operation blocking levels and mining the traffic events interdependence relationships in order to provide auxiliary support for traffic block prevention and treatment. Moreover, with highway operation state prediction as the research core, In view of the low efficiency of the current abnormal highway state access and treatment, the paper proposes a highway operation abnormal state prediction method based on a prediction deviation analysis model,which including road traffic flow combination forecasting and section traffic flow parameters (flow, speed, road share) forecasting through RBF, in order to predict dynamically the frequently abnormalities state and accidental abnormalities state in the highway operation process. Finally, by combining the thesis research and real-world practice, and following the case a highway authority requirements of risk analysis, application background as well as performance data, the results have demonstrated the effectiveness and practicability of the cost management method based on data mining. The research fruits can be cited and referred by other traffic operation safety management for achieving their intelligent and knowledge-based risk management.