| Water resource is important foundational resource for human survival and social development. Traditional development mode has already caused many problems, such as the lack of water resources and increasingly serious water environmental pollution, which seriously stop the development of social economy, affect the public stability, and threaten human survival. Therefore, more and more people in the society pay more and wider attention to the problem of water resource sustainability.Focusing on Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, this thesis adopts modern data processing methods to analyze water resource characters of multi-time-scale, future developmental trend, sustainable utilization level and management strategy, as follows:(1) From three aspects of water resource like multi-time-scale, future developmental trend and sustainable utilization evaluation, this thesis systematically analyses actual research situation at home and abroad and summarizes the existing problems of water resource at present; meanwhile, it also analyzes water resource in the fields of sustainable utilization factors, present situation, the problems of exploration and utilization situation, and future supply-demand status, in Harbin.(2)First of all, this thesis summarizes the significance and steps of water resources with multi-time-scale characteristics by wavelet transform. Then it separately analyzes the multi-time-scale characteristics of annual precipitation and main flood precipitation in Harbin from 1961 to 2008, and of annual runoff and main flood runoff at Harbin hydrological station from 1989 to 2008. Finally, it analyzes the main cycles of water resource multi-time-scale change are obtained by variance analysis.(3) By seeking the combination point of EMD theory and harmonic analysis, this thesis points out harmonic analysis model based on EMD, which is used for dynamic forecast of annual and main flood precipitation in Harbin. It takes annual and main flood runoff at Harbin hydrological station from 1989 to 2001 as network input, while from 2002 to 2008 as checkout data, in order to set up BP nerve network model for dynamic prediction. Through determine network structure, samples of input and output layers, it forecasts the dynamic trend of annual and main flood runoff of hvdrological stations at Harbin. It also establishes GM (1,1) optimized model based on ant colony algorithm, by ant colony algorithm applying on GM (1,1) equations parameters solution, so as to analyze the changing trend of annual average groundwater embedment depth in Harbin.(4) It discusses the water resources sustainable utilization evaluation indexes of Harbin in detail by DPSIR model, analyzes the water resources system state in Harbin from five parts of driving force index, pressure index, state index, influence index and response index, and fixes the each index range elementally. It selects the evaluation index of water resources sustainable utilization, on the base of water resources sustainable utilization evaluation index system frame and building principles of evaluation index system, discusses the meaning of index and calculates specific value. At the same time, it adopts Cronbach's a coefficient to test the index's availability on the interior consistency of the index.(5) It introduces RAGA-AHP and PSO-PP to determine the objective and subjective weight of index layer and criterion layer in sustainable utilization evaluation index system of water resources in Harbin, takes 50% of objective weight and subjective weight as synthesis weight to evaluate the general trend of water resources sustainable utilization in Harbin from 2000 to 2008, and assess the change of five factor layers such as drive, press, state, reflect and impact on water resources sustainable utilization.(6) This thesis presents the management strategies of the water resource sustainable utilization, from the areas of social management, administrative management, economic and industrialized management, social institutions management and so on.
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