Study On Risk Evaluation And Supervision Of Dairy Quality Safety

Dairy products plays a more and more important role in the dietary structure, but theincidents of dairy quality safety happened frequently, dairy consumption confidence hasbeen hit. Many scholars focus on the question of dairy quality safety, but system study onrisk of dairy quality safety is relatively small, most of existing research lacks the theoryanalysis and guidance. Studying on risk evaluation and supervision of dairy quality safetyis to realize scientific monitoring and evaluation of dairy quality safety factors, guided bythe theory analysis to ensure the quality and safety of dairy products.Guiding by three theory that are the quality safety theory of dairy products, dairyproducts quality safety features and game theory, using the research method of qualitativeand quantitative research, the combination of empirical research combined with normativeresearch method，research idea is that in terms of evaluation, through comprehensiveanalysis risk factors of dairy quality safety, establish index system for monitoring thequality and safety of dairy products. Quantitative monitoring indicators are used toobjectively evaluate the quality and safety of dairy products. Qualitative indicatorsrepresent the risk factors that can’t be quantified but have a major influence on dairyquality safety. Qualitative indicators are for qualitative evaluation. In terms of supervision,through on-the-spot investigation, interview and literature research to understand thepresent situation of dairy quality safety supervision, analyze the way suitable for China’snational conditions guided by the theory analysis. Quality and safety protection measuresof dairy products are put forward.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:Established the quantitative and the qualitative index system. Guided by the systemtheory, using PEST analysis and HACCP analysis were used to anslyze the external andinternal risk factors, and the monitoring index system in theory were built. On the basis ofthe materiality principle, quantitative principle and data availability principle17quantitative indicators were selected to build the quantitative index system. Follow theprinciple of feasibility and sensitivity five qualitative index were selected and set up thecorresponding secondary index to build the qualitative index system.Empirical research of the quantitative index system.5grade evaluation method wasused for17quantitative indicators to determine grade division standard and the securitystatus of each indicators were evaluated. Each index weight was gived by the principal component analysis (PCA), according to the weight the quantitative index is divided intokey indicators, general indicators and secondary indicators. Research shows that ourcountry dairy quality safety integrated level rises year by year, has been in a less safe statein2002-2008. After the "melamine" incident in2008, supervision of dairy quality safetywas strengthened and dairy quality safety integrated level rose to the basic safety level in2009-2010,2011-2012as a safer level. As for early warning of the quantitative indexsystem, use10kinds of model of exponential smoothing method and the trendextrapolation to fit sample data of quantitative monitoring index, select the optimum fittingcurve for early warning of single index. The comprehensive evaluation model was used toearly warning of the comprehensive status of2013and2014, studies show that in2013andin2014with a safe state.Evaluation and early warning of the qualitative index. The regulatory system isexpected to be improved and veterinary system construction level will be in a safer level;Dairy farming will face a higher risk of disease; Standardized use degree of food additiveswill be in a state of basic security.Case studies. Risk evaluation and early warning of dairy quanlity safety in HebeiProvince based on the quantitative index system. Current situation dairy industry of inHebei was analyzed, based on historical data on17quantitative indicators to evaluate thesecurity status, use of comprehensive evaluation model for dairy quality safety to thecomprehensive evaluation. Studies have shown that basic trend of dairy quality safetycomprehensive level in Hebei is similar with the national comprehensive consistent level.Supervision way of dairy quality safety were designed. The information asymmetrytheory and game theory were used to analyze the stakeholders behavior choice to find theexisting deficiency of market mechanism itself and regulatory, guided by the supervisionprinciple of dairy quality safety, design four regulatory body including the government, theenterprise itself, the media and consumer.Dairy quality safety protection measures were put forward. That included perfectdairy quality safety supervision system, standardize the way of dairy farming to ensure thesafety of milk, improve the science and technology innovation ability and qualitymanagement level of dairy products processing industry, give full play to the mediasupervision function and improve the supervision capacity of the consumers.This research has some innovations in the following aspects:17quantitative indexeswere constructed based on the analysis of risk factors, not quantitative, but also qualitativeindexes based on the risk factors that significant influence on quality of dairy safety quality.Empirical risk evaluation and early warning was studied based on quantitative evaluationindex. Corresponding supervision measures were put forward from five aspects includingthe government, dairy farming enterprises, dairy processing, media and consumers.