Research & Application Of The Multi-point Statistical Model On Dam-deformation Analysis

Dam deformation monitoring is one of the most direct and important ways to obtaining the information of its deformation. Therefore, the work of deformation monitoring data in-depth analysis is not just the requirements of relevant norms, but also the one of important information sources to recognize the dam deformation laws, and find out its safety problems, which can provide guidance for follow-up monitoring work. This paper, based on previous studies, and a statistical point of view, focuses on the theme of "holistic analysis" to study on the dam deformation monitoring data from the global point of view. The main research work and achievements include the following aspects:(1) Study on the environmental factors impact on the dam deformationAccording to features of the multi-event proportional hazard model in survival analysis, the monitoring data is converted. Then the environmental factors impact on the dam deformation is calculated and analyzed from the perspective of multi-points, which can break through the limitations of single-point modeling analysis. And the analysis of main dam monitoring data in the China's Yellow River Xiaolangdi water and hydropower project in the paper is based on the proposed model.(2) Research on the deformation law of the dam itself. Include mainly:①According to of the distribution of monitoring points on the dam, the displacement of all monitoring points and their change of displacement rate, and referring to some concepts about "strength", a new concept—to reflect the deforming situation of the dam fittingly—is proposed, called "displacement strength", which can show the activity of the dam deformation accumulated in a long time. And the distribution image of the dam's displacement strength in China's Yellow River Xiaolangdi water and hydropower project is drawn.②The method called detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) in the theory of fractal, can diagnose the fractal scaling features of the non-stationary time series and its long-termed-related behavior. For the monitoring data in the unusual environmental conditions, this method can find out the inner law of the dam.(3)Research on the analysis program about monitoring data of medium-sized and small damsThe paper discusses and analyzes the problems about management in medium-sized and small dams, and sum up current dam safety management standards and technical standards in our country. From a technical point of view, the paper proposes the analysis program about monitoring data of medium-sized and small dams:along the main line from "point"->"line"->"body", mining the valuable knowledge progressively. Then the deformation activity in deferent phases can be analyzed and assessed from the overall point of view, which can offer the scientific basis for the future work of dam deformation monitoring, especially for the medium-sized and small dam.