Market Risk Analysis And Synthetic Decision Making In District Power Supply Market Base On Digital Simulation

Opening Demand - side electricity market is an important part of the power industry reform in China.Transition of the mechanism will bring tremendous opportunity of development to the district power suppliers, whereas, they will be faced with enormous risk and challenge at the same time. To adapt to the power market reform better and increase their management level, district power suppliers should enhance their ability of analysis and decision making under power market environment.This thesis introduces concept of digital simulation and corresponding technical methods to the field of management analysis of district power supply markets, and the theoretical framework of market risk analysis and synthetic decision-making based on digital simulation is then established.Mathematical models of the operations of district power suppliers, including purchase of the electricity, construction of the distribution network and sale of electricity, are established in this thesis. On this basis, the work of simulation modeling is implemented; design and implementation of the analytical platform based on simulation (APS) are also proposed.To deal with the uncertainty of input data in simulating analysis, a fuzzy model based on states and emerging probilities is proposed, through which the simulating model under uncertain conditions could be established. On this basis, a classificatory early - warning model is proposed.Driven by partial benefit, the self - provide power plants (SPPP) are developing at an unreasonable rate in some regions, and this will have negative impact on the management of the district power supply markets. In this thesis, the effects brought by SPPPs in different developing levels are studied. Mathematical model for corresponding market risk analysis through APS is proposed. By using this model, quantative proofs can be provided for regulatory committee to enact relevant act and for district power supplier to take apposite measures.Synthetic decision making in district distribution network construction is studied in this thesis The research work includes: (1) Define and demonstrate economic and...