Research And Application Of Key Technique For Real-time Joint Operation Of Flood Control System In River Basin

The characteristics of flood disaster in China, the history of flood control and disaster relief, the new principle of flood control in new century, as well as the meaning of non-structural measure are summarized in this dissertation. It is summed up that the current status and development of river basin flood control system real-time joint operation from the requirement of flood control and disaster relief, scale of flood control system, research method etc;the problems are analyzed;and frontier and hot points of the river basin flood control system real-time joint operation research are pointed out.Some typical methods that arise recently on calculation of reservoir flood-control were selected, and a systematical comparison and research was made based on the following aspects, including the speed of calculation, the convergence and stability, the facility of usage, the accuracy of computing, and the convenience of programming etc. The result shows that trial-and-error method is obviously superior to other methods. Calculating speed of this method was increased over 20% by improving the iterative format of trial-and-error method. The consistent relation between the adopting expressions and the original expressions of the maximal flood peak reduction objective function for optimal flood-control and the least disaster time objective function has been deduced, and criteria of these two objective functions were unified. For the maximal flood peak reduction criterion, the stage trial-and-error method with progressive introduction of constraint conditions from the beginning of the ideal optimal solution was proposed, which ensured the practicability of the optimal solution. Compared to the dynamic programming, the method improved the calculating speed greatly.It proposed the flood inverse routing method in river channel, such as the cross-section flow correlation method, the principal value iteration method, the process iteration method etc. Comparison of such methods shows that result of the process iteration method combined with Muskingum routing method is the most ideal. The flood inverse routing method in river channel is applied to the compensating regulation pattern combined dispatching of river and reservoir and can solve the auto-correlationand lagging problem of the compensating regulation combined dispatching of river and reservoir. Aiming at the mismatching of the flood inundation period, the travel time of flood in river channel, the operation period, and the specialty of multi-person decision making for real-time flood control system, three combined dispatching of river and reservoir models which have the iterative function of the model of reservoir storage allocation, the multi-level interactive model, and the degree of equalization-security model was provided.It was analyzed the source of risk in river basin real-time flood control operation, and obtained important risk analysis decision factors. It was proposed the risk analysis method for reservoir and downstream river channel based on the risk analysis differences between them, and risk-control technology for real-time flood control system combined dispatching of river and reservoir was also proposed from the following facets, including prediction precision control, the classification control of reservoir stage, dynamic control of limited levels in reservoir, etc. For the demand of river basin real-time flood control multi-person decision making, it was investigated evaluation technique of multi-plan based on optimal value model and introduced the determination method of multi-index weight based on AHP, GEM and fuzzy interval reflection method. The scenario consultation model of real-time flood control operation was provided, the selection of consultation factors and the design of consultation platform was carried out.