Research On Prediction Of Open Coal Pit Slope Deformation

The article emphasize the integration effects of qualitative and quantitative factors based on the open-air coal mine environment and deformation observation data, carry on the study of slop deformation under kinds of prediction meathods.As to the qualitative analysis, the paper put forward the concept of relative dangerous area, relative dangerous degree assessment, dangerous area delineation and potienal landside identifying.by using these measures to qualitity grasp the slop stability and deformation state, it make guidelines for slop focal monitoring and landside study. Based on the creep deformation theory, together with the actual creep deformation of open-air coal mine, it propose the concept of "rainy season accelerating period", assessing the current destruction deformation state of Buzhaoba, enrich and develop the theory of creep deformation.Study the slop deformation mechanism and regulation by numerical simulation, implement the deformation mpnitoring program of open-air coal mine, analyze the dynamic deformation and trend of slop drilling hole from surface and undergroung, establish polynomial movement fitting model, ARMA model based on residual error variance minmum, time series analysis model, grey system model, neural network model. Based on the individual models, the article combines the models, predit the overall deformation of monitoring line, slop 3D entity deformation prediction and predicts the slop deformation in a long time, the results are in line with the actual situation. The results of this paper provide a theoretical basis for many open-mine slop slip study and slop management and safety production planning.