An Analysis On Characteristics And Measures Of GHG Emission In China Less-developed Regions

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is an important environmental and development issue.As for the developing countries,the most significant thing is to coordinate the huge contradictions between mitigating climate change and maintaining the sustainable socio-economic development.So it is for the less-developed regions in developing countries.On the basis of reviewing the emergence and development of global change science and the scientific facts about climate change and GHG emissions,the paper assessed and analyzed the GHG emission status in less-developed region—taking Gansu Province as an example,forecasted the GHG emission scenarios in the future,and put foreword some recommendations and measures for less-developed regions to achieve GHG emission reduction and expedite socio-economic development.Firstly,the paper reviewed the historical origins and complex relationships between the scientific,political and economic aspects of climate change,introduced the status of global GHG emissions,analyzed the allocation principles for GHG emission reduction obligations and its controversies,described the main international emission reduction actions,and pointed out that the most important choice for combating the climate change challenge is both mitigation and adaptation.Secondly,consulting the methods of GHG emission assessment and scenario analysis offered by some scholars and research organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA),the paper assessed the GHG emissions of Gansu Province and its counterparts, developed and addressed a framework of 3E scenario,analyzed the less-developed regions'future various emission scenarios in the angles of economic goals(E1),energy efficiency goals(E2) and environmental goals(E3).The paper downscaled the international GHG assessment and scenario analysis in the local scale of Gansu Province as the first step,and then upscaled the GHG emission characteristics,pressures and the requirements for economy development of Gansu Province to the regional scale of China's less-developed regions.The result show that the total GHG emission in Gansu Province in 2005 was 79.90 Mt CO₂,among which the emissions from oil,coal,and natural gas were 11.40 Mt CO₂, 66.66 Mt CO₂,and 1.84 Mt CO₂,respectively.By the vertically and horizontally comparative analysis of the GHG emissions in Gansu Province,it was found that the GHG emission of Gansu Province had the following characteristics: 1) GHG emission contribution from coal consumptions was great with the level of 83.43 percent of Gansu's total GHG emissions;2) per GDP emission was higher,the per GDP emission of Gansu Province in 2005 was 413 t CO₂ per million Yuan of GDP,which was 2.51 times of Shanghai and 1.66 times of the national average level,respectively;3) per capita emission was low,the per capita emission of Gansu Province in 2005 was 3.08 t CO₂,which was 88.52 percent of that of China,36.28 percent of that of Shanghai and 72.99 percent of that of the world,respectively:4) the overall situation of GHG emission in Gansu Province has improved,between 2003 and 2005 the growth rate of GHG emissions was only 5.96 percent,lower than that of GDP;and the per GDP emissions are continuing to decline,with the annual average decreasing rate up to 13 percent.By the 3E(economic,energy efficiency,and environmental) scenario analysis of Gansu Province,the paper estimated the GHG emission scenarios of Gansu Province up to 2050.1) In the E1 emission scenario based on the economic development objectives,the growth rate of GHG emission in Gansu Province is closely related with that of economy. GHG emissions continue to increase,the GHG emission in 2020 will be 2.83 times of that in 2005,and the GHG emission in 2050 will be 6.74 times of that in 2005.Therefore, Gansu Province will also face enormous risks from ecology,environment,resources and politics.2) In the E2 emission scenario based on the energy efficiency goals,Gansu Province could gradually realize the development of high energy efficiency,low energy consumption,and low emission by decreasing steadily the per GDP emissions.The GHG emission in 2020 will be 1.58 times of that in 2005,and the GHG emission in 2050 will be 3.14 times of that in 2005.3) In the E3 emission scenario based on the environmental objectives to stabilize the atmospheric CO₂ concentration below 550 ppm,Gansu Province should gradually reduce GHG emission,making sure that by 2020 GHG emission reaches its peak,which increases by 7.71 percent compared with that in 2005.By 2050 GHG emission will decline to 75 percent of that in 2005.Combining the three scenarios,the GHG emission of Gansu Province in 2020 will be approximately between 86.06 and 226.07 Mt CO₂,and by 2050 it will be about between 59.92 and 538.45 Mt CO₂. Based on the assessment and analysis of GHG emissions in Gansu Province,the paper proposed the measures for less-developed regions to keep the social-economy development and reduce the GHG emission,which included:1) combining emission reduction with industrial transformation to promote the competitiveness of economic development steadily,namely,using the relatively loose period of GHG emission to realize the economic transition and to improve the coping capacity of low carbon development patterns in the future.2) combining emission reduction with ecological reconstruction to preserve the good environment for nature and human settlement,namely,through some efforts such as ecological reconstruction to realize biological carbon sequestration and integrate them into the framework of emission reduction,in order that the less-developed regions could maintain the economic development vitality as well as improve the environment for nature and human settlement,increasing the capability for regional sustainable development in the less-developed regions.3) combining emission reduction with support policy so as to achieve the rapidly improvement of socio-economic environment,that is obtaining and utilizing national support policies and investments to implement energy conservation and pollution reduction,at the same time,to achieve the socio-economic objectives such as significant technology upgrades,industrial transformation,social security and so on.4) combining emission reduction with the clean energy development in order to expedite the new growth point of economy,namely,on the premise of consideration to environmental protection,to develop renewable resources such as wind,solar, hydropower.In the meanwhile,we should explore the possibilities for the development of biomass energy,hydrogen energy and nuclear energy in some appropriate less-developed regions.Clean energy output may also be the important transformation initiatives for some less-developed regions.5) combining emission reduction with comprehensive measures to promote the social security system and development patterns,namely,strengthening the knowledge popularization and capabilities of prevention,adaptation and resilience to climate change, constructing the social security system that could defend climate change positively,and low carbon emission development patterns based on the concept of harmonious development.